Democratic Primaries

jcgoldie

(12,046 posts)

5. I disagree with Nate Silver

Fri Oct 25, 2019, 10:57 AM

Oct 2019

Trump has done nothing for 3 years but repeatedly pander to the most extreme elements of his base. Those 40% aren't going to leave him for Tulsi Gabbard. Its the independents that make up the next 6% that he got in 2016 that are embarrassed by his ignorance and hatefulness... they will probably vote Democrat in 2020 if they don't stay home because they despise Trump. Someone like Gabbard could siphon them off by providing a conservative alternative to the Democratic candidate who is at least not obviously insane and racist. In short, I don't think anyone will be on the fence about Trump, so I don't think a 3rd party candidate hurts him as much as whoever is running against him.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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Highlight:

Nate Silver unconvinced that a Tulsi independent candidacy would help Trump [View all] Bhphoto Oct 2019 OP

I'm thinking the same thing. Without Nate's statistical evidence MaryMagdaline Oct 2019 #1

Nate doesn't cite any statistical evidence though caraher Oct 2019 #2

Common sense shows me that there's been plenty of messaging from both sides put out abqtommy Oct 2019 #3

I hope Nate Silver's right peggysue2 Oct 2019 #4

I disagree with Nate Silver jcgoldie Oct 2019 #5

I hope that Nate is right on this Gothmog Oct 2019 #6

Tulsi Would Be Used Like Berni Was In 2016 TomCADem Oct 2019 #7