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Foreign Affairs

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TexasTowelie

(123,379 posts)
Wed Oct 1, 2025, 01:18 PM Wednesday

FSB vs Army: Russia's Civil War - Jason Jay Smart [View all]



Vladimir Putin's purge of 17 generals has ignited a civil war between the FSB and the Army, triggering a final countdown to the collapse of Crimea. This analysis reveals how this command paralysis has shattered Russia's military logistics, as critical fuel convoys evaporate and tanks sit idle. With the army crippled from within, Crimea's air defense has been torn open by the destruction of key Nebo-M radars, creating a nightly highway for drones. This isn't just a setback; it's a systemic failure unfolding in real-time, caused directly by a political purge spiraling out of control.

This deep dive exposes the full causal sequence, showing how each court case in Moscow directly leads to a weaker trench at Perekop. We connect the dots between the isolated Black Sea Fleet, the chokepoint at the Kerch Bridge, and the empty fuel depots that signal a strategic breaking point. This is the definitive explanation of how an internal power struggle is handing a decisive advantage to Ukraine and reshaping the entire conflict.

CHAPTERS:
00:00 Intro: Inside Putin's Purge
02:11 Russia's Black Sea Retreat: Crimea's Defenses Fail
04:11 Moscow's Oil Disaster: FSB's Role in Russia's Fuel Crisis
06:03 Frontline Paralysis: Fear Freezes Russia's Supply Chain
07:11 The Math of Defeat: How Ukraine's Drones Target Supply
09:41 Conclusion: Crimea's Final 60 Days
12:04 Outro
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