A Huge Threat to the U.S. Budget Has Receded. And No One Is Sure Why.

[Zorro]

For decades, runaway Medicare spending was the story of the federal budget.

Now, flat Medicare spending might be a bigger one.

Something strange has been happening in this giant federal program. Instead of growing and growing, as it always had before, spending per Medicare beneficiary has nearly leveled off over more than a decade.

The trend can be a little hard to see because, as baby boomers have aged, the number of people using Medicare has grown. But it has had enormous consequences for federal spending. Budget news often sounds apocalyptic, but the Medicare trend has been unexpectedly good for federal spending, saving taxpayers a huge amount relative to projections.

“Without a doubt, this is the most important thing that has happened to the federal budget in the last 20 years,” said David Cutler, a professor of health policy and medicine at Harvard, who helped the Obama White House develop the Affordable Care Act.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/05/upshot/medicare-budget-threat-receded.html?unlocked_article_code=OLSX_L8ssXE5DHWwWpeDm0dsA2R15mFPJ84JANLvIXxdpIeOt9vnV_oKG3hHjGLwqoX5Hdl1gMCPa8PlHFfVOYqhG6kSkSccCzUrwi77MTD0cRfh9mNDBHMeEtdiMrhohBSZGvWo8chTciyHAgyk5CzuHiV5TXOVtMKIYziEtDRSwpSNrQDL9OoKu3tEj48cFJs67YX14-jHoThykjJbXGNJqnOF4jwSLjOmmmoWuYHbb2r2qw6d3zUTlnAVALyyl2sWJRX1hmaIWxAWEnnKAjfV7ua9ZJJGTD0DG7FNP4CUQXi3zyqM7-pe5-qgPM9vZ62zhySIHo7XBto4Q-1Ur_XyFclflp9hnUJD3DGeEKr9JZecNj3D&smid=url-share

Some encouraging news for a change.