A Huge Threat to the U.S. Budget Has Receded. And No One Is Sure Why.

[Zorro]

For decades, runaway Medicare spending was the story of the federal budget.

Now, flat Medicare spending might be a bigger one.

Something strange has been happening in this giant federal program. Instead of growing and growing, as it always had before, spending per Medicare beneficiary has nearly leveled off over more than a decade.

The trend can be a little hard to see because, as baby boomers have aged, the number of people using Medicare has grown. But it has had enormous consequences for federal spending. Budget news often sounds apocalyptic, but the Medicare trend has been unexpectedly good for federal spending, saving taxpayers a huge amount relative to projections.

“Without a doubt, this is the most important thing that has happened to the federal budget in the last 20 years,” said David Cutler, a professor of health policy and medicine at Harvard, who helped the Obama White House develop the Affordable Care Act.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/09/05/upshot/medicare-budget-threat-receded.html?unlocked_article_code=OLSX_L8ssXE5DHWwWpeDm0dsA2R15mFPJ84JANLvIXxdpIeOt9vnV_oKG3hHjGLwqoX5Hdl1gMCPa8PlHFfVOYqhG6kSkSccCzUrwi77MTD0cRfh9mNDBHMeEtdiMrhohBSZGvWo8chTciyHAgyk5CzuHiV5TXOVtMKIYziEtDRSwpSNrQDL9OoKu3tEj48cFJs67YX14-jHoThykjJbXGNJqnOF4jwSLjOmmmoWuYHbb2r2qw6d3zUTlnAVALyyl2sWJRX1hmaIWxAWEnnKAjfV7ua9ZJJGTD0DG7FNP4CUQXi3zyqM7-pe5-qgPM9vZ62zhySIHo7XBto4Q-1Ur_XyFclflp9hnUJD3DGeEKr9JZecNj3D&smid=url-share

Some encouraging news for a change.

[PSPS]

1. "Budget news often sounds apocalyptic" LOL. Gee, I wonder why that is?

[Baitball Blogger]

2. Maybe there was a natural culling that occurred when Covid was fatal

to anyone who had a health issue?

[mopinko]

4. seems possible.

they had a short stay in the icu b4 they died.
1m ppl has to have an impact.

eta- i’ve been wondering about this. waiting to see how the numbers r spun.

[progressoid]

5. Looking at the NYT chart, there was definitely a dramatic drop from 2020 to today.

[Pluvious]

24. That was my very first thought too

There’s two stark facts which are indisputable:
1. Medical costs of our elderly are insanely high
2. Loss of life from Covid has disproportionately hit our most frail senior population

Of course the reduction of this subset of costs would be impactful

And it’s not the kind of topic ANY public official his going to want to mention

[Baitball Blogger]

28. Oh, I expect the hard right will find a way to turn culling of Senior citizens into

a campaign issue. It's not like there wasn't a Republican party member, decades ago, who said it was the Seniors' obligation to die. Wish I could remember his name.

[Pluvious]

29. Remember Allan Grayson ?

From 2009 !!
( 30 seconds clip )

[Scrivener7]

25. But they say the trend has been going on for 10 years.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

27. Perhaps this represents education about healthy living?

Would there be a change in diet and exercise that started taking hold twenty years ago ( 10 years for stats to show up in medicare, 10 years for change in health conciousness and status)?

[BComplex]

3. THE REASON for most of the surge in medical bills is INSURANCE COMPANIES paying

their millions of employees, AND paying insurance company officers exorbitant salaries, packages, parachutes, etc. If all that money we pay to insurance companies for medical insurance was instead paid directly to the government for health care, we could finally have universal health care and money to spare.

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Privatization takes our tax dollars out of the biggest "bargainer"'s hands and gives it to the greedy and corrupt and sociopathic corporations.

[sanatanadharma]

6. The heallth-freak baby-boomers are now saving the USA money

That portion of the large boomer generation that sought lives of ecology and health and good eating and right-everything relating to the world of other, are now using less health care money than expected.

[Aviation Pro]

13. I'm one of that cohort

Still exercising 5 days a week, eat 95% of our meals at home, no poor lifestyle choices.

OTOH, the boomers in red states are dropping like flies; credit COVID for the assist there.

[mama]

16. That's me and hubby... actively participating in staying healthy

We are in our late sixties, and we have had so much more information during our lifetimes than our parents did. Older generations worked all day, so didn't really need to exercise to stay healthy. But those born in the 1930's had the conveniences that saved physical labor and the abundance of tasty food without understanding the importance of physical activity.

[BonnieJW]

17. Me too

I began embracing wellness over 50 years ago and I mainly did it with diet. I made my kids' baby food, baked our bread and cooked from scratch every night. About 5 years ago, I went on a plant based diet. Exercise is great but what you put in your mouth is everything

[NJCher]

20. I wanna' be in this group!

I think I might be, too. This year when I got my mammogram, I was offered the option of applying artificial intelligence to my reading. I was advised I'd have to pay for that segment since insurance hasn't yet caught up to AI and medical tests. No problem, I said.

I got the results and it turns out I'm in the category that has the lowest chance of getting breast cancer. I'm in the 9.45% group. That is something that came from the AI analysis.

This despite the fact that my mother had it but survived with treatment. She had it at my age, if I recall correctly.

Hey, they don't call me the Salad Queen around my neighborhood for nuthin'.

Nondrinker
Nonsmoker
Regular exerciser through gardening
and surrounded by lotsa' love

Anyway, I hope you are right with this, sanatanadharma. We can teach this (that's what I do with teaching kids to garden) and more and more people are seeing the value of good nutrition and exercise.

[Bobstandard]

7. Good, regular heal care reduces illness

Free regular check ups identify problems early leading to better and cheaper long term outcomes.

[Alexander Of Assyria]

8. The most important thing is the trillion dollar military budget...always has been, little discussed.

[Dustlawyer]

9. This!!! Audit the Pentagon!

[Torchlight]

11. What of the premise of the article?

[CaptainTruth]

10. Millions of people got healthcare thanks to the ACA so they're healthier as they age.

Years of regular preventative care means millions of folks (who couldn't afford healthcare before the ACA) are now healthier as they age, thus reducing their Medicare claims.

Not sure how much effect this factor is having, but it must have some effect.

I have a friend who's an insurance broker, including health insurance, & he told me how they were swamped with people who were getting health insurance for the first time in their adult lives after the ACA went into effect. It has to make a difference.

[NJCher]

21. If this is true

This will give Biden yet ANOTHER point to make during the campaign.

He wasn't kidding when he said to Obama on the passage of the ACA, "this is a big [effing] deal." That was in May of 2010, just for perspective.

And this is a powerful point. Wow, think about all those surveys that show how people think America is on the wrong track. This is proof that we are straightening that out.

Combine this with the IRA (Inflation Recovery Act) and it's track for slowing global warning and we have some PROOF AND winning points.

--------------

for those who want to remember that moment:

[Merlot]

12. Something to do with the ACA?

It included a lot of free screenings and preventative healthcare. Maybe it's paying off, it's been doing this over a decade:

spending per Medicare beneficiary has nearly leveled off over more than a decade.

[Chakaconcarne]

14. More seniors turning to Cannabis?

[SleeplessinSoCal]

15. I don't understand Medicare part D

I have United Healthcare Medicare Advantage. I pay very little. My social security check is still paying for Medicare, but I am told Medicare Advantage is not Medicare. How does that play into the overall picture? I've no idea.

[mama]

18. It's complicated

We watched youtubes by "Boomer Benefits" to understand. Medicare Advantage plans are run by insurance companies to make money, and they can refuse to pay for some services.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

22. Well that's not good.

My hubby and I were both insured through his SAG/AFTRA benefits. When Covid shut down the industry, thousands were booted from their PPO plans to HMOs. He to Blue Shield of Califirnia 65 plus HMO and I to United Healthcare Medicare Advantage. SAG provided us a broker to find the best plans for us in order to keep our primary doctors.

I miss our PPO. And can one really trust a broker?

[mama]

26. I'm not an expert, but as I understand it

The government pays Medicare Advantage plans a set amount to provide medical services. If your expenses go beyond that amount, they will be nickle and diming you so that they don't lose money. All is good as long as you don't need much medical care.

I learned about it when my Mom was refused some services at the end of her life.
We had always followed the advice of my late father's employer. For years it was traditional Medicare with a supplement which the company helped provide. When they switched to the Medicare Advantage plan, we trusted that it was okay. But they stopped paying for her nursing home after 4 weeks when she was clearly near the end of her life, because she wasn't showing "improvement".

When it came time for us to apply, we did a lot of research and chose traditional Medicare with a good supplement. It's good for us because we like to travel, but it does cost us an additional 215/month. But we know we'll never be left with a huge bill, because the copays and out-of-pocket max are reasonable.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

30. Thanks for sharing your experience.

When it's time to change I'll keep all this in mind.

[Fresh Water Falling]

19. GOPhers still want to eliminate it

After all, it does nothing to enrich their plutocratic owners!

[SleeplessinSoCal]

23. This is where the whole Socialism bad thing hurts the ignorent.

I swear that simplifying our healthcare system ain't going to happen because of the three card monty game we call American health care. And they have our number. Just divide us, stress us out by paying us less and less and allow putrefying industry to rule over all.

[AwakeAtLast]

31. Some great replies!

Could the reduction in smoking also play a part?