"I've got the best poll numbers I've ever had! Red hot!!!"

[Bluetus]

17. Strangely, the Fox polls have traditionally been middle-of-the-pack

It is Rassmussen and some others that are always the outliers.

If Fox has him at -17, that's a huge problem for Trump. One of the problems with the -17 is that's pretty close to the level that Dems are over-performing in just about every election this year. The elections we're winning are blowouts, and the ones we're losing, we are over-performing by 15.5% according to this analysis:
https://dccc.org/democrats-are-overperforming-in-special-elections-at-historic-numbers/

To date, Republicans have been unable to disentangle themselves from Trump. This week's moves on the Epstein vote is a very clear signal that Republicans like Thune have figured out that they MUST separate from Trump or else they will get wiped out next year. Notice how Johnson attempted to carry Trump's water, pleading for changes to the House bill that Johnson was unable to stop, but Thune swatted him away.? Thune wanted no part of that. Thune figures the House is already lost next year, and he wants to make sure he doesn't also lose the Senate.

So, I'd suggest the Fox poll is actually a very good indication of how we can expect to over-perform versus 2024 results. Trump is not going to become more popular, so it now comes down to how effectively Republicans can separate from Trump.