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Septua

(2,905 posts)
Sat Oct 18, 2025, 09:58 PM Saturday

Statistical significance of 6 million "No Kings" protesters. [View all]

From Google AI:

Significance in terms of the "3.5% rule"

A common benchmark for mass movements is the "3.5% rule," first researched by Erica Chenoweth. This descriptive statistic suggests that no government has withstood a challenge from 3.5% of its population mobilized in peaceful protest.

Here is how the numbers from the "No Kings" protests compare to this benchmark:

• In the U.S., 3.5% of the population is equivalent to about 12 million people.

• The estimated turnout of 4 to 6 million participants in the June 2025 rallies represents 1.2% to 1.8% of the U.S. population.

• While a significant show of force, the protest falls short of the 12 million person threshold often cited as a benchmark for inevitable change. However, Chenoweth has noted that many movements have succeeded with even less participation.

• A larger protest does not guarantee political change, which depends on factors like momentum, organization, and leadership.


The 6 million may not be considered enough to "effect a political change" but I'll wager it's significant enough to piss off Trump...
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