Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Septua

(2,905 posts)
Sat Oct 18, 2025, 09:58 PM Saturday

Statistical significance of 6 million "No Kings" protesters.

From Google AI:

Significance in terms of the "3.5% rule"

A common benchmark for mass movements is the "3.5% rule," first researched by Erica Chenoweth. This descriptive statistic suggests that no government has withstood a challenge from 3.5% of its population mobilized in peaceful protest.

Here is how the numbers from the "No Kings" protests compare to this benchmark:

• In the U.S., 3.5% of the population is equivalent to about 12 million people.

• The estimated turnout of 4 to 6 million participants in the June 2025 rallies represents 1.2% to 1.8% of the U.S. population.

• While a significant show of force, the protest falls short of the 12 million person threshold often cited as a benchmark for inevitable change. However, Chenoweth has noted that many movements have succeeded with even less participation.

• A larger protest does not guarantee political change, which depends on factors like momentum, organization, and leadership.


The 6 million may not be considered enough to "effect a political change" but I'll wager it's significant enough to piss off Trump...
11 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Statistical significance of 6 million "No Kings" protesters. (Original Post) Septua Saturday OP
Do we have JBTaurus83 Saturday #1
I misread my OP data Septua Sunday #6
Expect him to invade Ethiopia soon, to distract from this and EPSTEIN. usonian Saturday #2
Even Erica Chenoweth gave qualifiers 303squadron Saturday #3
Already preparing for the next one! librechik Saturday #4
in chicago, it's estimated at almost 10% of the population. mopinko Saturday #5
The true purpose of No Kings isn't affecting change today WarGamer Sunday #7
Party pooper here gulliver Sunday #8
I disagree with "completely insignificant." Septua Sunday #9
I hope I'm wrong gulliver Sunday #10
I hope you're wrong too... Septua Sunday #11

JBTaurus83

(722 posts)
1. Do we have
Sat Oct 18, 2025, 10:14 PM
Saturday

Any credible numbers yet? I saw someone report that here in Philly where I attended there were only 15,000. I can tell you that way more than that can fit around Independence Hall and the place was packed with a long march from City Hall.

usonian

(21,791 posts)
2. Expect him to invade Ethiopia soon, to distract from this and EPSTEIN.
Sat Oct 18, 2025, 10:20 PM
Saturday

He's not a deep thinker, a copycat fascist.

The "Before" photo.

FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT!



You've seen the "After" photo. I don't post it here.

He had his Epstein moment.

303squadron

(760 posts)
3. Even Erica Chenoweth gave qualifiers
Sat Oct 18, 2025, 10:24 PM
Saturday

We’re talking here about an ongoing, well-organized campaign with a clear goal that shifts among various tactics as needed. – Chenoweth, 2021

In other words, it can’t just be one event. It has to be ongoing.

mopinko

(73,085 posts)
5. in chicago, it's estimated at almost 10% of the population.
Sat Oct 18, 2025, 10:45 PM
Saturday

200-250k is what cbs said. 2.7 m population.
the line of ppl was 2 miles long.
we’re pissed here. wait til the goons start showing up in more towns.

WarGamer

(18,047 posts)
7. The true purpose of No Kings isn't affecting change today
Sun Oct 19, 2025, 12:40 PM
Sunday

It's mobilizing, motivating and energizing VOTERS for 2026 and 2028.

Trump will be in office for 3 years and 3 months more... no way around that.

But he can be effectively stymied in January, 2027 with a good election in 2026.

gulliver

(13,566 posts)
8. Party pooper here
Sun Oct 19, 2025, 12:57 PM
Sunday

The protest is completely insignificant, if not a backfire. It's face time, some venting, some humor (the most effective part) and copious quantities of oxytocin in the air. But it will be forgotten by Wednesday.

A protest might mean something practically and politically if you could get some sort of metric about the protesters. I'm not sure we have the technology for that yet. To win elections solidly, I think the Democratic Party would want to see a representation metric (for the protest) of true voters who care about true issues and what those issues are. That would be how you would judge the protest statistically in my opinion. Raw counts don't matter.





Septua

(2,905 posts)
9. I disagree with "completely insignificant."
Sun Oct 19, 2025, 01:35 PM
Sunday

Google AI statement:

According to protest organizers and recent reports, the "No Kings" protests held nationwide on Saturday, October 18, 2025, attracted nearly 7 million people, which organizers claim makes it possibly the largest single-day mobilization against a U.S. president in modern history. The rallies demonstrated against Donald Trump's administration and policies across more than 2,700 events in all 50 states and overseas.


That's not some kind of statistic Trump wants to own, leading to more shooting-himself-in-the-foot propaganda.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/mmx6kBiMycg

gulliver

(13,566 posts)
10. I hope I'm wrong
Sun Oct 19, 2025, 01:51 PM
Sunday

I think it will be forgotten by Wednesday. For now, Trump is playing the protest as a foil and a straight man to his ends. It would be vastly different if we weren't in the ubiquitous media world of today. A huge protest of this kind back in the '70s would have meant a lot. Now it just looks like a flash mob put together from phone apps.

I don't think it should have been titled "No Kings." To me, it is a misfire, not unlike "No Oligarchs." Too clever by half, so the sentiment loses its emotional punch. The sentiment for today, in a world where no one has heard of a tyrannical king and few fully appreciate the complex system of oligarchy, is "no dictators."

I'm being critical. A lot of people did a lot of work. I know people who went. More power to them.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Statistical significance ...