Leading pollsters say their jobs are 'getting harder' because people refuse to answer their phones [View all]
When it comes to the accuracy of polls, two important terms to bear in mind are “margin of error” and “turnout.” Some reporters believe that all polls have a margin of error of 5 percent, and if one sees the phrase “likely voter,” that isn’t the same as “certain voter” or “definite voter” — which means that some of the people polled won’t necessarily follow through and show up on Election Day.
Polls aren’t perfect, and in an article published by the Daily Beast on November 7 — the day before the 2022 midterms elections — reporters Matt Fuller and Roger Sollenberger emphasize that the pollsters themselves are the first to admit that.
“If the pollsters and handicappers end up being spectacularly wrong on Election Night, there’s one group that won’t be too surprised: the pollsters and handicappers themselves,” Fuller and Sollenberger explain. “The 2022 midterms could go exactly as modeled — a 20-some-odd-seat pickup for Republicans in the House and maybe a 51-49 GOP Senate — but the people who watch these races the closest are also warning they might be wrong in decisive ways. In either direction.”
The Beast reporters continue, “No one really knows because, like every election, pollsters are extrapolating their best guess based on a set of assumptions. But unlike previous elections, the assumptions are getting bigger.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/leading-pollsters-say-their-jobs-are-getting-harder-because-people-refuse-to-answer-their-phones-report/ar-AA13PyKk
If I don't recognize the caller's number I don't answer. I've received too many junk calls.
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