Leading pollsters say their jobs are 'getting harder' because people refuse to answer their phones

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

When it comes to the accuracy of polls, two important terms to bear in mind are “margin of error” and “turnout.” Some reporters believe that all polls have a margin of error of 5 percent, and if one sees the phrase “likely voter,” that isn’t the same as “certain voter” or “definite voter” — which means that some of the people polled won’t necessarily follow through and show up on Election Day.

Polls aren’t perfect, and in an article published by the Daily Beast on November 7 — the day before the 2022 midterms elections — reporters Matt Fuller and Roger Sollenberger emphasize that the pollsters themselves are the first to admit that.

“If the pollsters and handicappers end up being spectacularly wrong on Election Night, there’s one group that won’t be too surprised: the pollsters and handicappers themselves,” Fuller and Sollenberger explain. “The 2022 midterms could go exactly as modeled — a 20-some-odd-seat pickup for Republicans in the House and maybe a 51-49 GOP Senate — but the people who watch these races the closest are also warning they might be wrong in decisive ways. In either direction.”

The Beast reporters continue, “No one really knows because, like every election, pollsters are extrapolating their best guess based on a set of assumptions. But unlike previous elections, the assumptions are getting bigger.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/leading-pollsters-say-their-jobs-are-getting-harder-because-people-refuse-to-answer-their-phones-report/ar-AA13PyKk

If I don't recognize the caller's number I don't answer. I've received too many junk calls.

[Lucid Dreamer]

1. It doesn't do ME any good to answer the poll calls, so I don't.

I don't know why anybody picks up unknown callers.

[marybourg]

2. I got a call on my landline from Marist Polls, but since I screen

my calls, the machine answered. Had they stayed through my outgoing message and announced themselves, I would have picked up, but as soon as they heard a machine pick up they hung up.

[Ocelot II]

3. Some interesting info about polling cell phones:

Pollsters actually can call cell phones, but there are a few restrictions which cause most pollsters to simply exclude cell phones from their polls. As cell phone usage rises, some organizations which track polling and the data collected on polls have raised concerns about exclusion of the cell phone only demographic. By routinely omitting cell phones from polls, these organizations argue, polling organizations may be missing out on crucial data, especially since cell phone only households are often heavily clustered within specific population demographics.

One of the major obstacles to pollsters who wish to call cell phones is that in the United States, federal law specifically prohibits the use of automated dialing systems to make unsolicited calls to cell phones under the Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA). This means that if pollsters want to call phones, they must dial the numbers by hand. Since most pollsters rely heavily on automated systems to make their work easier, this obstacle is by no means insignificant.

In addition, pollsters must consider the fact that many cell phone users are charged for air time. Because of this, some cell phone owners may be reluctant to respond to polling questions on their cell phones. As a result, pollsters may feel obligated to offer some form of compensation, and in some areas compensation is actually required by law. Because of these issues, some pollsters feel it is better to simply exclude cell phones from polls....

Cell phones also pose a geographic challenge. For example, someone may move to Illinois from California, but keep his or her cell phone number, for a variety of reasons. Pollsters carrying out a survey in California would call the cell phone number, only to discover that the number's owner actually lives in Illinois. This might mean that the data was worthless, if the pollster was carrying out a poll on the basis of geographic region.

https://www.unitedstatesnow.org/why-cant-pollsters-call-cell-phones.htm

[Deminpenn]

6. Jmo, but lots of people might have gotten rid of their landlines,

but kept their phone number because everyone knows it and now that same number follows them wherever they go.

The F&M poll in PA does something different, though. They send out USPS mail to their prospective respondents, then allow them to choose a live interview or respond over the internet. That gets around the cell phone/landline problem.

[Claustrum]

4. I actually tried to answer a few calls hoping to take a pollster call.

But they all end up being spam calls. So I went back into not answering any calls from unknown numbers.

[kysrsoze]

5. Fully agree. I think this is why the polls are not reliable. I NEVER answer the phone or texts...

if I don't know exactly who is calling/texting. You cannot tell if a text or call is legit, so I think a lot of people do the same thing as I do. I would imagine this is much more the case with younger voters, so I would think this skews things to the right in these polls.

We'll see if I'm correct by tomorrow and the coming days. I can't imagine the majority of people want to go back to Republican/fascist madness.

[Deminpenn]

7. That is some big time hedging right there

nt

[cojoel]

8. At this point

There are too many organizations doing polls

There are too many non-poll spam phone calls

There are many people who have long-ago abandoned "land lines"

Caller ID makes it easy to screen calls for both land lines and mobile phones.

The quality of data pollers can be receive is thus rather low.

[kimbutgar]

9. I rarely answer my landline nor cell if I don't know the caller

[I_UndergroundPanther]

10. Than crack down

On spam,fraudulent calls, phone harassment,intrusive businesses with telemarketing bullshit,and enforce with teeth the do not call registry.
And start arresting people.
Make better call blocking technology and bring back phone books. Businesses and advertisers need to respect peoples time,attention and space .

Then knowing that it is safer and not an intrusion, a hassle or soliciting by assholes selling dick pills or insurance for a car you dont have,
Maybe the people will answer thier calls
knowing they are most likely legit enough to answer a poll.

[moonscape]

11. I kept getting calls from caller ID

Rasmussen on a landline and would have picked up had I been sure it actually was a legitimate poll. But there are so many spoofed calls that I blew them off as not worth it.

[I_UndergroundPanther]

13. Thats what I am saying

People dont trust whom is calling thier phone isnt a scam or an ad or telemarketer hard selling shit they don't want.

Limits need to be put and enforced to businesses forigen callers scams and telemarketers. It is intrusive and disrespecting. People just stop answering any number they dont know.

Clean up the bullshit things would change.

Let the businesses be in a phone book the person seeking the service will call you. Thats the way it needs to be fuck the hard sell. People do not like door to door salesmen interrupting dinner. And sticking your foot in the door via phone calls isnt going to sell more shit people dont want.

[jcgoldie]

12. margin of error is mathematically calculated

It is not based on what "some reporters believe".