The first three rules of politics were on display in Virginia tonight

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6. Manchin had little to do with what occurred in Virginia tonight

First rule: all politics are local. The key in Virginia was that Independents and the mainstream, suburban Republicans who have been turned off in the past by republican candidates such as Corey Stewart and Ken Cucinnelli were comfortable with Youngkin.
Add to that a dismal campaign by a Democratic candidate who has never generated much enthusiasm in the state (note again his victory in 2013 where he didn't even get 48 percent of the vote) and a shot himself in the foot comment in the debate that he could never overcome -- and you have the result we see tonight. Personally, McAuliffe's campaign always felt more defensive than it should have. He ran on his record from 2013 - 2017, totally ignoring the gains the state has made under Democratic leadership in recent years -- letting Youngkin depict a state in chaos when that wasn't the case.

I understand why McAuliffe ran away from Northam, but under Democratic control, Virginia has climbed to the number 7 spot in the US News ranking of the best states. And McAuliffe could have tried tarring Youngkin not just with Trump, but with DeSantis and Abbott, pointing out that under Democratic control Virginia has the 39th lowest COVID deaths per capita -- far better than Florida and Texas.

It was always going to be a hard race once the Republicans dodged the bullet of nominating Amanda Chase.