The first three rules of politics were on display in Virginia tonight

[onenote]

The first rule is that all politics is local. And it was by focusing on local school issues that Youngkin turned around the race.

The second rule, historically on display in a state like Virginia (where I've lived my entire life): the pendulum swings and then it swings back. Thus, while there are the usual posts saying the "sky is falling", "we're doomed forever: and even "we'll be the same as Nazi Germany in a few years", history suggests that the Democrats will come back at some point, possibly sooner than you think.

That history:
Virginia Governor:
1970-1982 - R
1982-1994 - D
1994-2002- R
2002-2010 - D
2010-2014 - R
2014-2022 - D
2022 --- R

Virginia US Senator:
1983-1989- 2 R
1989-2001 - 1 D/1 R
2001-2007 - 2 R
2007- today - 2 D

As recently as 2009, the VA Delegation in the US House was 5 D/6 R
Then it was only 3 D/8 R for 6 years, 4 D/7 R for 2 years and then starting in 2019 it turned to 7 D/4 R. It will not surprise anyone if it shifts back to some degree after the 2023 election.

Finally, the third rule: don't repeat your mistakes. The Repubs lost their edge in Virginia by nominating unlikable candidates such as Ken Cuccinelli and Corey Stewart. If they had nominated Amanda Chase this year, they might well have lost again. But they figured out that they needed a chameleon -- someone who presented himself as a mainstream Republican, able to appeal to the Independents that had been turned off by the extremists. But it will be interesting to see whether the Virginia Republican party can keep their crazies boxed up or whether they will end up nominating another one down the line and, if the Democrats can offer up a mainstream candidate against a crazy, the Democrats will regain the upper hand.

[msongs]

1. don' commit suicide by saying stupid things nt

[onenote]

2. That too.

[JI7]

3. Assuming we lose this one I actually don't feel that bad as other elections . Maybe it's because we

have been through far worse plus I feel comfortable knowing that Virginia hasn't really gone right wing but rather it's still a moderate democratic state but not California blue .

I think Kaine or Warner would have won .

Republicans are doing what they have always done. They no longer win on things like abortion and gay rights and a few other issues that they would always run on. But now it's something like CRT or Defund the Police and other scaremongering .

Remember that there were many people that hate Trump but are not liberal and they can easily be swayed on these issues. Especially white people.

[PortTack]

4. Thx for the informed post.

I’m in IL..as blue as it gets, a super majority in the house and senate for years, yet the state has a history of flipping the governor blue to red and back again. granted, we’ve had criminals for governor on both sides..actually more red than blue. But that’s what they do

Hopefully this goon won’t be able to get much done without the senate on board and a tie in the house. He no doubt will show his true colors

[Stallion]

5. Lead, Follow or get out of the way

Unfortunately 2 Democrats have obstructed the rest of the Party from providing meaningful relief

I knew on election night in 2020 that Joe Manchin was going to be the most powerful Senator in years BECAUSE we lost several Senate races we should have won. Not surprised or shocked-quite frankly the other factions of the Party have not been the major problem. Democrats aren't really is disarray-we just have 1-2 Democrats who can't be counted on and our margins are too small

[onenote]

6. Manchin had little to do with what occurred in Virginia tonight

First rule: all politics are local. The key in Virginia was that Independents and the mainstream, suburban Republicans who have been turned off in the past by republican candidates such as Corey Stewart and Ken Cucinnelli were comfortable with Youngkin.
Add to that a dismal campaign by a Democratic candidate who has never generated much enthusiasm in the state (note again his victory in 2013 where he didn't even get 48 percent of the vote) and a shot himself in the foot comment in the debate that he could never overcome -- and you have the result we see tonight. Personally, McAuliffe's campaign always felt more defensive than it should have. He ran on his record from 2013 - 2017, totally ignoring the gains the state has made under Democratic leadership in recent years -- letting Youngkin depict a state in chaos when that wasn't the case.

I understand why McAuliffe ran away from Northam, but under Democratic control, Virginia has climbed to the number 7 spot in the US News ranking of the best states. And McAuliffe could have tried tarring Youngkin not just with Trump, but with DeSantis and Abbott, pointing out that under Democratic control Virginia has the 39th lowest COVID deaths per capita -- far better than Florida and Texas.

It was always going to be a hard race once the Republicans dodged the bullet of nominating Amanda Chase.

[PortTack]

7. Agree

[uponit7771]

8. No we wont "come back", I lived in Texas where the voting ABILITY is on of the lowest or the lowest

... of any state in the union.

The Gov can pimp slap infants on camera and still get voted into office because of how vote ABILITY is denied in that state.

This is different, they're not interested in democracy and through violence they've showed us such

[HUAJIAO]

9. I agree with you. The 'times' are different.

It is not the same old ball game.

[Mysterian]

10. The first rule is have a good candidate

McAuliffe lost a lot of votes for his unqualified support for the doomed Atlantic Coast pipeline.

[SoonerPride]

11. When they rig the vote, there is no coming back.

We do not live in a democracy anymore.

The sooner people wake up to that fact the better.

[DallasNE]

12. No Midcourse Correction Doomed Race

It should have been abundantly clear that the message wasn't working and needed to be changed because the erosion in support was gradual and unrelenting. He needed to stop the bleeding by wading directly into the critical race theory issue. A dismissive denial of the charge was never going to work to end the conspiracy theory on the subject. He needed to educate the voters using facts. Republicans got red meat and Democrats got chicken soup.

Having said that, we nearly lost New Jersey as well and the issues were different. Republicans are still smarting that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump and were looking for revenge and almost got it. Got to get to work so this same thing doesn't play out again in 2022. The revenge factor will still be there too.

[Tommymac]

13. Mr. McAuliffe was a mediocre candidate and ran a poor race.

I got 2 emails from HIM this past weekend where he went off on HIS DONORS and other Democratic supporters. Sounded like a spoiled little brat whining about someone taking away his toys. Seriously.

He ignored the Grass Roots until September, and basically assumed that just because he was a Democrat he would win. He never had a good internet campaign in place to get donations. He relied entirely on the Democratic Party establishment for that. He never raised funds well.

He IGNORED the Grass Roots.

He IGNORED the Grass Roots.

He IGNORED the Grass Roots.

This was not a referendum on Trumpism...it was simply a poor effort by a weak Democratic candidate with baggage in a State with a large rural population who will never vote anything but Republican. And just enough iuninformed voters in the suburbs to carry the upset.

If the Democratic Party had run a strong woman or minority candidate they would have kicked ass and taken names.

Fuck.