The first three rules of politics were on display in Virginia tonight

[onenote]

The first rule is that all politics is local. And it was by focusing on local school issues that Youngkin turned around the race.

The second rule, historically on display in a state like Virginia (where I've lived my entire life): the pendulum swings and then it swings back. Thus, while there are the usual posts saying the "sky is falling", "we're doomed forever: and even "we'll be the same as Nazi Germany in a few years", history suggests that the Democrats will come back at some point, possibly sooner than you think.

That history:
Virginia Governor:
1970-1982 - R
1982-1994 - D
1994-2002- R
2002-2010 - D
2010-2014 - R
2014-2022 - D
2022 --- R

Virginia US Senator:
1983-1989- 2 R
1989-2001 - 1 D/1 R
2001-2007 - 2 R
2007- today - 2 D

As recently as 2009, the VA Delegation in the US House was 5 D/6 R
Then it was only 3 D/8 R for 6 years, 4 D/7 R for 2 years and then starting in 2019 it turned to 7 D/4 R. It will not surprise anyone if it shifts back to some degree after the 2023 election.

Finally, the third rule: don't repeat your mistakes. The Repubs lost their edge in Virginia by nominating unlikable candidates such as Ken Cuccinelli and Corey Stewart. If they had nominated Amanda Chase this year, they might well have lost again. But they figured out that they needed a chameleon -- someone who presented himself as a mainstream Republican, able to appeal to the Independents that had been turned off by the extremists. But it will be interesting to see whether the Virginia Republican party can keep their crazies boxed up or whether they will end up nominating another one down the line and, if the Democrats can offer up a mainstream candidate against a crazy, the Democrats will regain the upper hand.