Palestinians' gambit for UN recognition wobbles

[Jefferson23]

Even as the Arab League threw its weight behind the Palestinian Authority's bid for UN recognition of a Palestinian state, officials are having second thoughts.

By Joshua Mitnick, Correspondent / July 14, 2011

Ramallah, West Bank
After 20 years of negotiations with Israel and no lasting peace, Palestinians are pursuing a more unorthodox route: getting the United Nations to recognize Palestine as an independent state – and, ideally, welcome it as a new UN member.

Two-thirds of Palestinians support the UN bid, which has lifted their expectations of sovereignty.

But now, with the potential vote just two months away and the paperwork due this month, Palestinian Authority (PA) officials appear to be getting cold feet. The United States has vowed to veto the move, all but guaranteeing that Palestinians would be denied full UN membership.

snip* US likely to be an obstacle at UN
President Obama and US lawmakers, seeking to protect Israel and viewing the UN move as a challenge to its leadership on the peace process, have strongly opposed the statehood bid. On June 29, the US Senate passed a unanimous resolution urging Palestinian leaders to "cease all efforts at circumventing the negotiation process," specifically calling out the UN campaign. If the PA fails to cease such efforts, the resolution warned, Congress could place restrictions on the roughly half-billion dollars in annual aid it sends to the PA.

Palestinian analyst Hani al-Masri believes that Abbas's aides are looking for an exit strategy. "They are afraid of stopping aid from the US. They are afraid of Palestinian protests," he says.

in full: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0714/Palestinians-gambit-for-UN-recognition-wobbles

[PDJane]

1. It's the aid thing, yes.........

And frankly, I suspect that the US will stop aid from arriving from anyhwere else on the planet too.

The Palestinians are caught between the proverbial rock and hard place.

The only way for them to gain their freedom and their land is for the US people to see that the Israelis are punishing the Palestinians for a war they weren't involved in...and for the Israelis' territorial ambitions to be confined.

[shaayecanaan]

8. Congress can't stop aid to the Palestinians on their own...

the President is responsible for preparing the numbers for the foreign aid loop. Congress can vote it down but if they do, they vote down Israel's aid with it.

Congress can put conditions on the aid, which they have done, but ultimately it is up to the president whether the conditions are satisfied or not.

[Violet_Crumble]

2. I don't think that article has got it right about recognition...

While the US can veto the UN membershipe, it can't veto the official recognition by the UN of the new state. And won't the US look even more churlish than it already is if it yet again abuses its power of veto in the Security Council and stops Palestine from becoming a full member...

[aranthus]

5. You're partially right.

The US can block membership, but not a vote in the General Assembly. However, the UN can not give meaningful recognition to a government; only another government can do that. Bolivia can recognize Palestine; Bolivia's vote at the UN does not. The General Assembly is political theater. It can be entertaining at times, but it's dangerous to start to believe that what's going on up on the stage is real.

[Harmony Blue]

6. I respectfully disagree

The General Assembly vote is more than a symbolic vote as it carries great importance for the future. In other words, it leads to a groundwork foundation that has serious ramification which is why this potential vote in the Fall is considered a political tsunami by many Israeli leaders. Remember, the state of Israel was formed by the General Assembly. The vote was 33 to 10 in favor, with 10 abstentions back in Nov 29, 1947.

[eyl]

11. It's a show of popularity, basically

remember that UNGA resolutions (unlike UNSC resolutions) are not instruments of international law. Any vote in the General Assembly (and yes, this inculdes the 1947 vote*) is ultimately purely symbolic. There's nothing preventing various UN members from recognizing a Palestinian state now (well, apart from the fact that the Palesetinians haven't declared one yet).

*Though the resolution creating Israel was somewhat different, as Palestine was a UN mandate at the time.

[Violet_Crumble]

13. I agree with you on that...

It is a symbolic thing, and there doesn't seem to be any expectation that things will change after the vote....

btw, good to see you again, eyl :hi:

[eyl]

14. cheers

:)

[Violet_Crumble]

9. I think meaningful recognition is a critical mass sort of thing...

Get a large enough number of states recognising a new state, and that's meaningful. What exactly the number is where it reaches critical mass, I'm not sure, but from this thing I just read when I was searching for information on international recognition of the new state of East Timor, about 60 is too low, as Kosovo proves.

I haven't had a chance to read through all this yet, but thought you and others interested in this sort of thing might like to take a look at it:

http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/16184_040210il.pdf

[aranthus]

12. True.

I just don't think a vote by the UN counts. If individual governments recognize Palestine--as some have--that counts. What the proposed UN resolution will do is provide political cover for other moves.

[classysassy]

3. Too Bad

our government is so unfair when it comes to statehood for the Palestinian.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

4. Can we afford another failed state? Palestine is not currently viable as a nation

and even if Israel quit defending itself against attacks and incursions, it would be little better

[wuushew]

7. Do you have a objective classification of what constitutes a "sucessful state"?

That way we can assign percentages and targets to these criteria so that critics can stop the shifting the magic threshold ever farther into the distant never.

Also proximity to a failed state(which I do not beleive the PA is will/be) does not dictate extinction of a neighboring state. Do you believe that Eritrea is doomed by its unstable neighbors? Is Kosovo a viable state? Are the splinter countries in the Caucasus? Is Iraq?

[Violet_Crumble]

10. Well, there's nothing for it but to run a poll here at DU to make that decision!

I bags asking Palestine to join DU so I can PM them with the bad news that a few DUers have decided they can't afford another failed state. And when they quite rightly point out that they're just as organised and prepared as the Zionists were back when Israel was recognised as a state, we'll tell them that we don't care what so called leftist ecomonic and law experts say, coz we at DU have done a poll and that's like far more weighty than their weasel words! Then after all that, I can nominate someone to tell East Timor that as another failed state, we at DU just can't afford them. Oh, and let's not forget the newest state of all, South Sudan!