Mississippi Dems’ Upswing Begets Stronger Outlook in Key Fall Races

[DeepModem Mom]

CQ Politics: Mississippi Dems’ Upswing Begets Stronger Outlook in Key Fall Races
By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

Democrat Travis W. Childers ’ takeover of Mississippi’s 1st District in a House special election last month was at least an interruption in the Republican Party’s long ascendancy in the strongly conservative-leaning Southern state. And a CQ Politics analysis of the upcoming general election contest for that seat — and for the November special election in which former 1st District Republican Rep. Roger Wicker is defending the Senate seat to which he was appointed last December — suggests that Childers’ victory is a harbinger of a very hazardous campaign year for the Mississippi GOP.

CQ Politics has changed its ratings on both the Senate and 1st District House races to reflect the strengthened Democratic Party position and the Republican Party’s increased degree of difficulty. These shifts were prompted in part by the Democrats’ recruitment of a prominent figure, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, as their challenger to Wicker, combined with Childers’ victory, which underscored the Democrats’ continued momentum in congressional politics since they gained their national Senate and House majorities with big gains in the 2006 elections.

The rating on the Senate special election has been changed to No Clear Favorite, or tossup, from Republican Favored. And for the 1st District general election — a rematch between Childers and Greg Davis, the Republican he defeated by 54 percent to 46 percent in the May 13 special — CQ Politics has changed its rating to Leans Democratic from No Clear Favorite. These changes do not mean that the Mississippi Republicans are in retreat, nor does it means they do not have a competitive shot to win both of these competitive races....

Yet the Democrats’ greatly improved outlook in the state’s two competitive congressional races would have been unimaginable even two years ago, when Mississippi stood largely immune from the pro-Democratic tide that swept much of the nation....

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002891311