Obama West Virginia defeat amplifies race, rural problems

[DeepModem Mom]

Politico: Obama defeat amplifies race, rural problems
By BEN SMITH | 5/13/08

Barack Obama’s stinging defeat in West Virginia brings a sharp focus on the new coalition he may have to assemble to win the White House in November....

In a stark rejection of Obama in a state Bill Clinton carried in 1992 and 1996, almost half of the Democratic primary voters — typically the most partisan Democrats in a state — said they’d vote for Republican John McCain rather than Obama in November. The results also suggested a deeper dissatisfaction among the state’s Democrats with both candidates: John Edwards, who dropped out more than three months ago, registered a substantial 7 percent of the vote, though Clinton immediately used the results to make her own case for electablity....

***

...(W)ith Obama remaining as the likely nominee, the results highlighted the question of exactly how he will beat McCain in November, a question his campaign did not directly address in a memo released a few hours before polls closed.

The memo stressed Obama’s strength in a different group, independent voters. “Nationally, Obama is running stronger among Independent voters than any winning Presidential candidate since 1988 and is significantly outperforming Sen. Clinton among these voters as well in general election polling,” the memo said.

The memo also dismissed as a “myth” the notion that “Obama cannot perform strongly enough among white voters.” “Obama ... is running as well or better than past Democratic candidates among white voters,” the memo said, showing he currently holds a share of white support similar to that Al Gore and John Kerry held in their head-to-head contests in 2000 and 2004.

The results on which the campaign is relying indicate that Obama does somewhat better with educated white independent voters than Clinton, making up for his deficit with working-class white voters. That’s a demographic fact that could change the map in November, pushing Obama’s campaign north and west, and posing problems for him in the crucial rust belt portions of Ohio and Pennsylvania....

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10334.html

[beezlebum]

1. lost me at "stinging."

:eyes:

doesn't the author mean "expected" or "anticipated?"

i dunno, doesn't feel like "defeat" either- something tells me, as this isn't affecting his momentum today, just hours after a loss, that this won't be a problem in terms of obama's "electability."

it's getting exhausting sifting through the bs orwellian talking points today.

[still_one]

2. and my argument would be what does Indiana represent? Obama essentially won that state

What these so-called pundants seem to forget is there are real issues, and real differences between the Democrats and the republicans. This is a primary, NOT a general election, and when the general election happens the following differences between the candidates WILL BE VERY CLEAR:

On the Iraq war
On the Supreme Court
On the economy and jobs
On healthcare
On social security and medicare
On the environment

People will have a very real choice

If they believe they are better off then they were 8 years ago mccain will win

Otherwise mccain will lose

It WON'T matter who the DEMOCRATIC candidate is

mccain WILL LOSE

[stillcool]

3. the only votes that 'matter'...

are those of uneducated hard working blue collar white voters who will not vote for Senator Obama, and the voters of Michigan and Florida. Got it. Can't wait for the ultimate goal post. The catastrophic event that we are all hoping for.

Clinton campaign on ropes
BY JOHN GUERRIERO
Published: May 08. 2008 6:00AM
Murray, who has supported Bill and Hillary Clinton since 1991, said these are tough times for people like him who are in the Clinton camp but want to unify the party.
"The sense is, absent some catastrophic event that would take place in this campaign, it's going to be very difficult to see a path to victory for Hillary given what happened" Tuesday, Murray said.
http://www.goerie.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080508/NEWS02/805080437

updated 12:43 a.m. EDT, Sun May 11, 2008
Analysis: Could Clinton land the VP nomination?
By Carl Bernstein
CNN Contributor
Several Clinton associates say there is still a ray of hope among some in her campaign: that a "catastrophic" revelation about Obama might make it possible for her to win the presidential nomination. But barring that, Hillary and Bill Clinton recognize that her candidacy is being abandoned and rejected by superdelegates whom she once expected to win over and that, even if she were to win the popular vote in combined primary states, she will almost certainly be denied the nomination.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/10/bernstein.clinton/index.html?section=cnn_latest

Clinton's Path To Victory Slipping Away
CBSNews.com Reports: N.Y. Senator Now Faces Nearly Impossible Odds To Capturing Democratic Nomination
May 7, 2008
There is one scenario which does work for Clinton and that’s a massive movement of superdelegates leaving Obama and supporting her. The party leaders could do that, but it would take some unforeseen development in the race between now and the convention for them to do so. Obama, in some way, would have to be rendered so unelectable that the party rejects him at the convention. That’s not much to hang a hat on but it’s starting to look like her best option.

And even that might not be a viable option, said Joe Trippi. “Even if the catastrophic thing existed or happened, if she were perceived to have caused it, I think it would end her campaign too,” Trippi said. I don’t think there’s any way now for her to gain the nomination. She’s at the point now where if she tries
to make a case against Obama, it will actually speed up superdelegates joining his cause just to shut the campaign down.”

But Trippi notes that the Obama campaign and Democratic leaders are still likely to give Clinton the room she needs to go forward on her own terms, provided that she does so in a positive manner. “I think there’s lots of tolerance for her going on, running the table into the convention and having a presence there,” he said. “But if she actually tries to compete in the trenches for the nomination in a way that looks like it’s damaging the nominee … I don’t think there will be any tolerance for that at all.”
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/05/07/politics/main4078586.shtml