The Widening Gap: Resistance from Older Voters Could Keep a Democrat Out of the White House

[DeepModem Mom]

NYT: May 8, 2008
The Widening Gap
By Andrew Kohut

....The national elections in 2004 and 2006 saw younger people casting more votes for Democratic candidates than did older voters. During the last two years, polls have shown voters ages 18 to 29 aligning themselves with the Democratic party in great numbers. Indeed, they have found their chosen candidate in Barack Obama, who has carried the youth vote in 28 of 32 primary elections where exit polls were taken.

Interestingly, older voters — many of whom supported Democrats over the years — seem reluctant to support Mr. Obama. Hillary Clinton has carried the vote of people over 65 in 26 primary elections. And looking forward to the general election, the national polls now show John McCain running better against Mr. Obama among this older age group — as well as among middle-aged voters and younger voters. Furthermore, while Barack Obama’s appeal to young people coincides with their greater inclination to support Democrats, older voters do not show a greater allegiance to the Republican party that might explain their current voting intentions....

A look at recent Pew polls finds that the oldest and youngest blocs of voters come to very different personal judgments about Senators Obama and McCain. Fewer seniors, just 43 percent, hold a favorable view of Mr. Obama. Similarly, only 43 percent of voters under 30 have a positive personal view of Mr. McCain, well below his ratings among the rest of the electorate....



Unlike young and middle-aged voters, older voters appear far less captivated by the Obama persona. Many fewer of them say he is inspiring or down-to-earth, while more call him arrogant and hard to like.



But for older people it’s not just that they dislike Mr. Obama’s style. Significantly more older voters hold the highly conservative social opinions that Pew analyses have found to be associated with lack of support for his candidacy, including disapproval of interracial dating, belief that equal rights have been pushed too far and concern that immigrants threaten traditional values.



...the strong Democratic inclination of today’s young voters could point to the beginning of an era in which the party enjoys considerably more success than it did in the 1990s. The personal and social resistance of older voters to the party’s likely nominee could well keep a Democrat out of the White House and reverse the nationwide Democratic trend.

http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/08/the-widening-gap/index.html

[BlooInBloo]

1. We're doomed! DOOMED!!!

But to give what small amount of seriousness this deserves: that's likely a part of the reason Obama has created his own voter registration infrastructure: to get - and KEEP - a whole new block of voters.

It's not a zero-sum game, as so many seem to think - Obama is making the pie BIGGER.

[jody]

2. I've quickly browsed every exit poll from Dem primaries. BO's support comes from the 18-29 age group

and overwhelming support from black voters.

It remains to be shown whether BO can capture the majority votes in the other voting sectors in sufficient number to win the GE.

[Juche]

3. That could be a problem

But I have read that the GOP is getting older, something like 40-50% of republicans are 55 or older now. So maybe the 65+ crowd is more likely to be GOP. Then again exit polls show them only being slightly more GOP than democrat.

And the difference in polls among the 18-29 group vs the 65+ group on Obama seems minor, roughly 10 points.

[Journeyman]

4. But just because someone supported Hillary in the primary, why will they necessarily. . .

not support the Democratic Candidate in the General Election?

My brother is a rabid Clinton supporter, is angling to be a delegate for her, and sincerely believes that if Obama gets the nod he will most definitely lose the election. But he's still going to vote for the Democractic candidate come November. There's no conceivable situation where he'd ever vote for a Republican, least of all a spineless, mealy-mouth like John McCain. And my brother's firmly ensconced in the "older" voter category -- though he does not share the supposed social biases attributed to that group in the article.

[Jane Austin]

5. Golly. I'm old. And so are most of my friends.

We're all for Obama, as are both my kids.

Must be all our college edumacashuns.

What a load of crap. Wait'll they get a load of McThusela bumbling around trying to remember which country is which.

[roseBudd]

6. older voters are also more likely to see advanced age as a detriment

[roseBudd]

7. Obama is not married to a white woman so misceganation should not be an issue

[Warpy]

8. Hey, don't look at me!

I'm OLD and I'd vote for the hairball my cat just hacked up if it had a D after its name.

[Beregond2]

I think this

can mostly be attributed to the fact that younger voters tend to be much more internet savvy than older voters, who still get most of their news from the MSM.

[madrchsod]

9. i don`t give a shit about myself anymore cause i know my time is short

what i and millions of others my age care about is what world will be when our kids and grandkids inherit when we are gone.will it be a world far worse than what we have now or a world that we hope and pray that will be better than what we have now?
each one of us have to decide who is best to guide our country to a future we all hope will be better. is that person a young man or a man far older? a man who has a vision of what can be or a man who never will see the light.

it is up to each of us to show others what the future could be if we work together for our children and grandchildren.

[mitchtv]

10. I am older with no degree, but not stupid

or for that matter uneducated. I haven't decided weather to vote or not. I intensely disagree with Obama on Nuclear energy, and have always said that was a deal breaker. I will never vote for a Repukelikan. Obama has said raising the SS age was "on the table, everything is on the table" Well no, not if I have anything to say. That dialogue has all been lost in the memory hole. I will definitely vote down ticket.I have voted in every presidential election since '68.I voted Dem every time except '68 when I voted McCarthy.