Campaigns Throw Out Traditional Political Map; McCain Targets California, Obama Looks to the South

[DeepModem Mom]

WSJ: Campaigns Throw Out Traditional Political Map
As McCain Targets California, Obama Looks to the South
By LAURA MECKLER
May 8, 2008; Page A6

....This year, both sides are setting their sights on distant targets. The result may be a scrambled battleground map that mixes traditional swing states with those long thought to be in one camp or the other long before November.

Sen. Obama, who holds a strong lead for the Democratic nomination, and Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican presidential candidate, both believe they appeal to independents and that their candidacies open new opportunities. "If Obama and McCain run against each other, both campaigns are going to have to take a fresh look at the whole electoral landscape," said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who isn't aligned with any campaign....

***

If Sen. Obama wins the nomination, his campaign hopes to crack the Republican lock on the South. Its top target is Virginia, a state that has elected two consecutive Democratic governors and is poised to send a second Democrat to the Senate. Sen. Obama did very well in the Democratic primary there this year. Other Southern states are more of a stretch, but Democratic strategists mention North Carolina as well as Mississippi and Georgia, where the rise in African-American turnout spurred by Sen. Obama's history-making campaign could make for a competitive race, if not a Democratic victory.

More realistically, Democrats are looking to the Rocky Mountain West states of Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, all of which President Bush carried in 2004. "On a state level they are trending blue. Some if it is by inches; some of it is by miles," said Democratic consultant Stephanie Cutter. They consider Colorado a particularly rich target. Mr. Bush won the state twice, but in recent years, Democrats have won races for governor, U.S. Senate and have taken seats in the state legislature.

Democrats have also looked optimistically toward Arizona, but with Sen. McCain, an Arizonan, on the ballot, that's likely out of reach. Indeed, some Republicans say Sen. McCain is the ideal candidate to halt Democratic gains in the Mountain West partly because of his image with Hispanic voters, which is better than most Republicans'. McCain aides note that Sen. Obama hasn't performed well with Hispanic voters in many of the primary contests....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121020793505275591.html

[bluestateguy]

1. If he can get every single black adult to vote for him in Mississippi, he may have a chance there

I figure that would require him getting about 20% of the white vote there.

[gristy]

2. McCain has zero chance in CA

And the article is pretty clear that his campaign understands that.

[DeepModem Mom]

3. Interestingly, it says he thinks personally he can do it. Maybe thinks if Arnie can do it, he can?

I've heard from Californians, however, that a lot of people like Arnold personally, and that he benefits from being married to Maria.

I agree -- I don't think McCain carries California.