Report From the Ground in Indiana9/11 Commissioner Lee Hamilton to Barnstorm for Barack
Obama is expected to get a lift in Southern Indiana where the most influential political figure there - former congressman and 9/11 Commissioner Lee Hamilton - was planning to barnstorm Saturday and Sunday to cities such as Evansville, Corydon, Madison, Columbus, Seymour and Bloomington. The Hamilton tour has the potential to shift momentum away from Clinton, who has been widely favored in the 8th and 9th CDs.
Shifting Momentum / Factors
The latest Zogby Poll - the last poll released at this writing - had Obama leading Clinton 43-42 percent, suggesting that the momentum that appeared to be benefitting Clinton was beginning to wane. The two Democrats sparred fiercely on Clinton’s proposal for a federal gasoline tax holiday this summer.
Clinton said that families needed the relief so they could take "family vacations" this summer. But Obama and virtually every economist and even her political allies such as New York Gov. David Patterson said such a move would not be wise. There is little hope that Clinton could muster the Congressional support to impose the windfall tax on oil companies as she has talked about on the campaign trail.
There was also late developments in the Magnequench story, when ABC News reported that Sen. Evan Bayh had complained to the Clinton administration about the plant’s sale to a Chinese company. It later moved its operations to China. Clinton campaigned on the issue in mid-April and had based a campaign TV ad on the issue. Whether Obama can score points and support off the gas tax and Magnequench issue remains to be seen.
Perhaps the most critical development for Obama came on Wednesday and Thursday, when U.S. Rep. Baron Hill and super delegate Joe Andrew, the former Indiana and DNC chairman, endorsed Obama. Andrew shifted his support from Clinton. While the endorsements might have only headline value (Andrew was described as a "weasel" by Ann DeLaney on Indiana Week in Review Friday evening), what they did was shift the national news media away from the Rev. Jeremiah Wright story to another topic. Many believe Obama’s poll dive corresponded with the Rev. Wright story. Since the Andrew and Hill endorsements, the campaign settled on the gas tax issues, also good news for Obama.
Gas Tax Debate
Will Hoosiers understand the nuanced argument that Obama is making against the gas tax suspension? It worked for Gov. Frank O’Bannon during his 2000 re-election bid. Will Hoosiers see history repeating itself eight years later and make the connection that the status quo is responsible for the soaring gas prices and into Obama’s wheelhouse of change? Or will Clinton win on what could be perceived as a populist message?
HPI Analysis
We saw the momentum swing to Clinton after the Pennsylvania primary through mid-week. We believe that hits its apex and may be shifting into the weekend. We believe this race is too close to call.
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Also discussed in the article are factors such as Ground Organization, Racism, the Female Vote, Turnout and the African-American Vote