Large Turnout for Pa. Presidential Race May Affect House Primaries

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Large Turnout for Pa. Presidential Race May Affect House Primaries
By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff


If any prediction is safe about Tuesday’s Democratic presidential primary in Pennsylvania, it’s that there is going to be a very high vote turnout in a pivotal contest that is the first Democratic contest in six weeks.

And the larger-than-usual vote generated by the presidential contest is likely to have a ripple effect on the state’s congressional primary races further down the ballot.

Many Pennsylvania Democrats who cast a ballot for either Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton also have an opportunity to vote in races for Congress in which there are crowded Democratic primaries. In the northwestern 3rd District, four Democrats are vying to oppose seven-term Republican Rep. Phil English , and three Democrats are running in the southwestern 18th, where Republican Rep. Tim Murphy is seeking a fourth term.

Pennsylvania Democratic strategists who are working on congressional campaigns are thrilled that so many Democrats will show up to vote tomorrow. But they also acknowledge challenges to sharing the limelight with Obama and Clinton. It’s difficult for a congressional campaign to attract stories in local media, which are concentrating heavily on the presidential race, and get the attention of voters who have by now been bombarded by television advertisements, mail pieces and automated telephone calls.

And it’s difficult to model the electorate in these unusual circumstances. No one really knows just how many people will vote in Tuesday’s presidential race — and how many of them will, in turn, make a choice in the down-ballot contests.

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