McClatchy: A surge of new voters in Pennsylvania is likely to help Obama

[babylonsister]

A surge of new voters in Pennsylvania is likely to help Obama
By David Lightman | McClatchy Newspapers

* Posted on Sunday, April 13, 2008



BRISTOL, Pa. — Sandra Jones, an unemployed transit worker, and college student Christy Race are part of 2008's biggest electoral phenomenon — an army of people who've never voted but are swarming to the polls this year.

Jones, 48, is under no illusion that an election can instantly get her a good job, but at least it offers hope. "Barack Obama reminds me of John F. Kennedy," she said. "There's something about his demeanor and the way he speaks."

Race, 19, finds Obama unusually inspiring, too — and, she said, Democratic rival Hillary Clinton is simply unacceptable. "She's too into politics, and I think Bill Clinton's controlling her," Race said.

Race and Jones are part of the throng of new voters who are overwhelming polls across the nation. When Pennsylvania holds its crucial April 22 presidential primary, voter participation is again expected to surge.

Since January, Pennsylvania has registered nearly 210,000 new voters. Seventy percent registered Democratic and 18 percent registered Republican. The rest signed up with other parties.

Experts said the new registrants in Pennsylvania are following a pattern that's been evident all year, one that's tilted in favor of Democrats in general and Obama in particular.

more...

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/33432.html

[Divernan]

1. And these newly registered voters are not on the contact list for polls as "likely voters"

"Likely voters" are taken from the list of who voted in the last major election. In Pennsylvania, with the second largest senior population in the country (after Florida), you have a statistically significant percentage who become non-voters every year. They become too fragile, have senile dementia, move into nursing homes, or die. However, their names remain on the voter list for at least 2 to 4 years more. I called one voter on my Obama GOTV - list. He's 85 and blind. I asked him if he wanted assistance to get to the polls - and he told me definitely he would not vote. Then there are all the people who use answering machines to screen calls and do not take calls from pollsters, and the people who refuse to tell anyone how they're voting.

I think polling is not that accurate generally - and in Pennsylvania I think the poll results underestimate the number of Obama voters. We shall soon see.

[babylonsister]

2. I wish the primary was tomorrow. Yep, we shall see. Either way,

I think we're looking at more historic numbers.