Gallup: Republicans hold election enthusiasm edge

[democrattotheend]

23. You make some good points

But I do think the enthusiasm gap was a big part of why we won and won so big in 2008, and the gap was apparent all through the primary season. It's hard to compare differences in turnout between the parties this year with 2008, because the primaries were wide open on both sides in 2008, at least at the beginning.

Republican voters are more reliable and show up whether they are enthused or not. That's why Republicans push for measures that make it harder to vote - they know their own voters will show up regardless. Plus their voters live in less dense areas where there usually aren't hours-long lines to vote. So Democrats usually need an enthusiasm advantage over Republicans to win.

The one thing that gives me a bit of hope is the 2012 figures. I'm surprised that Democratic enthusiasm was so low in early 2012. The Republicans at that point were more enthused about defeating Obama than we were about getting him re-elected. But at least he had the advantages of incumbency, and he caught a somewhat lucky break at the end when Hurricane Sandy gave him the opportunity to remind people how competent and good in a crisis he was and to appear presidential while Romney was in a tough spot, not being able to do anything about Sandy but looking callous if he kept on campaigning as usual. Of course, Trump would probably bungle something like that, as he is so far with the corona virus, so hopefully incumbency will work against him.