2016 Postmortem

jwirr

(39,215 posts)

21. I don't pay much attention to national polls as they are more

Sat Dec 19, 2015, 04:19 PM

Dec 2015

likely to be incorrect. State polls are likely closer but it depends on the number of new voters that are coming in. They are usually not polled and I think that is where Bernie and Martin are going to be way ahead of the game. I know for instance that my brother is going to caucus for Bernie this year in Iowa and has never before.

Also having attended a few Iowa caucuses I know that people often come to the polls uncommitted and listen to what is being said before making up their minds. That means that even at the actual caucus we have a chance to change minds.

So the polls give us some indication but especially when looking at a caucus they do not tell us everything.

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Still Time and Space for Sanders, or Even O'Malley, to Catch Clinton in Iowa [View all] bigtree Dec 2015 OP

Indeed, anyone who has been following my writing this year knows that I think Clinton is a near-lock VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #1

most of us are forgetting bigtree Dec 2015 #4

you just keep telling yourself that VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #5

I will bigtree Dec 2015 #8

Anyone who thinks it is over are just too young to remember other pipoman Dec 2015 #2

She is within 2 points in New Hampshire now VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #3

Which would be important if today were NH or IA primary day... pipoman Dec 2015 #6

but it Sanders were within 2 in South Carolina VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #7

You must be mistaking me for someone else pipoman Dec 2015 #9

I keep hearing folks say bigtree Dec 2015 #10

I am a Clinton supporter and I know that this race is not over Gothmog Dec 2015 #12

that's the smart thing to do bigtree Dec 2015 #13

I was tempted to go to Iowa Gothmog Dec 2015 #14

I agree ismnotwasm Dec 2015 #18

Nate Silver is correct Gothmog Dec 2015 #11

kick bigtree Dec 2015 #15

HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!! WillyT Dec 2015 #16

If you read Nate Silver on a consistent basis, this is not anything that is new Gothmog Dec 2015 #19

» bigtree Dec 2015 #17

I hope. bigwillq Dec 2015 #20

I don't pay much attention to national polls as they are more jwirr Dec 2015 #21