Still Time and Space for Sanders, or Even O'Malley, to Catch Clinton in Iowa

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from FiveThirtyEight:


Did you know that there’s a Democratic presidential primary too? Sure, Hillary Clinton maintains a big lead in national polls and has all the endorsements. Sure, she’s almost certainly going to win the nomination. But if I were running the Clinton campaign, I’d still be a little nervous. Clinton’s lead in Iowa isn’t safe; Bernie Sanders could win the caucuses. And with expectations for her as high as they are, a Clinton loss in Iowa (or even an underwhelming win) would cause her campaign a lot of heartache.

Over the past month, Clinton has had a 53 percent to 37 percent advantage over Sanders in Iowa polls. A survey from polling demigod Ann Selzer found Clinton ahead of Sanders 48 percent to 39 percent. Her position is stronger than it was at this point during the 2008 cycle, when she led Barack Obama 30 percent to 24 percent. Still, past campaigns suggest that Clinton’s current lead isn’t necessarily secure.



There is clearly a relationship (just as there is between national primary results and national polls from this same period). But just six of the 12 candidates leading the Iowa polls at this point went on to win the caucuses. Those who led and then lost include Democrat Howard Dean in 2004, Republican Mitt Romney in 2008, Republican Herman Cain in 2012 and, of course, Clinton in 2008. Not only didn’t they win, none came particularly close.

Past campaigns suggest that 95 percent of the time, Clinton’s percentage of the Iowa vote will be between 32 percent and 68 percent. Meanwhile, Sanders could end up with anywhere between 17 percent and 54 percent of the vote. Heck — even Martin O’Malley (remember him?), who’s averaging a measly 4 percent over the past month, could conceivably win up to 25 percent of the vote based on the predictive error of past caucus polls.

Now, I’m not saying that Sanders will win the nomination or that O’Malley will find his way north of 5 percent. But there’s still time for a Sanders upset in Iowa. At the very least, there’s time for him to finish closer to Clinton than current surveys indicate.


read more: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-can-still-catch-hillary-clinton-in-iowa/