2016 Poll has Toomey leading in PA for reelection by just 5 points

[Hippo_Tron]

9. I suspect Pat Toomey gets a primary challenger, oddly enough...

The first wave of the Tea Party is getting thrown out by an even nuttier second wave of the Tea Party. Marco Rubio and Pat Toomey often look downright sane and reasonable next to Ted Cruz.

I doubt Toomey survives re-election unless the Democrats nominate someone horridly flawed, because the state has really become a reliably leaning blue state as long as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh voters actually go to the polls. When they don't, the "Alabama" part of the state decides who wins.

In a less blue Pennsylvania, Santorum managed to win re-election in a year that the state where Gore/Nader carried almost 53% of the vote combined. But I think he did himself in when he started to emerge as a national figure.