2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: "Only Hillary can stop Bernie Sanders from being US President, says Michael Moore" [View all]BainsBane
(56,907 posts)What those who assume Bernie is owed lament in Hillary Clinton daring to run for the nomination is that she has earned 2.5 million more votes than Bernie. The entire language of the presidency being "denied" Bernie assumes he is owed it. He nor anyone else is owed political office. They have to EARN a majority of votes, something Sanders has not been able to do. So sure, if Bernie faced no opposition, Clinton wouldn't be an obstacle to his ascension to the Oval Office. But then that doesn't speak well of his popular appeal, does it?
The fact is, Sanders does best in states with low turnout--caucus systems--rather than in primary states where far more voters participate. His campaign is well aware of this, which is why Tad Devine announced back in January a strategy targeting caucus states with low voter turnout:
With a dozen such contests coming before the end of March and Clinton expected to perform well on March 1, the first big multi-state primary day -- the caucuses are emerging as an integral part of Sanders long-shot plan.
Caucuses are very good for Bernie Sanders, explained chief Sanders strategist Tad Devine, likening the 2016 strategy to the one he deployed as Mike Dukakis field director in 1988. Caucuses tend to be in the much-lower turnout universe, and having people who intensely support you in events like that makes a huge difference. You saw that with President Obama in 2008, and youre going to see it with Bernie Sanders.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/bernie-sanders-iowa-obama-playbook-218137#ixzz44kuBzzz7
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The campaign has reaped the results of that strategy, sweeping caucus states but earning a far lower percentage of the vote in primaries states with much higher voters participation rates. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html
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