2016 Postmortem

paulthompson

(2,398 posts)

43. And by the way...

Wed Mar 30, 2016, 01:52 PM

Mar 2016

My second point is all my analysis, from what I've seen of the California poll numbers and demographic statistics so far.

Other people have made similar observations. For instance, there was a thread here yesterday pointing out that the latest poll numbers in California actually have a good silver lining for Sanders. Even though he's losing to Clinton so far, he actually does BETTER with the non-White vote than the White vote in the latest poll results. That runs counter to the popular narrative that he only does well with White voters. All he has to do is keep those non-White numbers, and boost his White vote numbers to how he's done in other states, and he will have a landslide victory in California.

Difficult? Yes. Impossible? No.

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538: It’s Really Hard To Get Bernie Sanders 988 More Delegates [View all] RandySF Mar 2016 OP

Keep on trying to discourage & demoralize Merryland Mar 2016 #1

Why is stating thoughtful analysis "discouraging" and "demoralizing" brooklynite Mar 2016 #2

Well we thought she had this wrapped up... GeorgiaPeanuts Mar 2016 #3

When someone has to resort to a personal insult, I usually assume they've lost the argument. brooklynite Mar 2016 #4

She does. The thing is there seem to be a number of people who joined DU DanTex Mar 2016 #5

Don't you get tired of repeating that over and over... GeorgiaPeanuts Mar 2016 #8

Of course Trump supporters are entitled to their opinion. Never claimed otherwise. DanTex Mar 2016 #10

And another to go on ignore n/t JesterCS Mar 2016 #47

Bernie or Bust, is that you? Are you a person who ascribes to that? Jackie Wilson Said Mar 2016 #55

Nope GeorgiaPeanuts Mar 2016 #59

Wait, what does that mean? Will you or will you not vote for Hillary if she is picked? Jackie Wilson Said Mar 2016 #60

"New Democrats"... GeorgiaPeanuts Mar 2016 #63

So someone who wont vote for the Democratic Party in arguably the worst time Jackie Wilson Said Mar 2016 #65

The rightward March is what is killing the party... GeorgiaPeanuts Mar 2016 #66

So were you to be in a swing state you will facilitate a GOP White House, got it. Jackie Wilson Said Mar 2016 #67

Insanity is doing the same thing over again... GeorgiaPeanuts Mar 2016 #68

So yes, you believe a Trump or Cruz presidency is not all that bad. Got it. Jackie Wilson Said Mar 2016 #70

I'm not playing your hypothetical game GeorgiaPeanuts Mar 2016 #72

So do you have friends or family in other states? Do you tell them to risk the White House Jackie Wilson Said Mar 2016 #73

You don't go left by going right, either. AgadorSparticus Mar 2016 #75

You have me scratching my head now.... FarPoint Mar 2016 #81

Let it go man SheenaR Mar 2016 #14

Welcome to DU, but I was doing just fine before you showed up and started giving me posting advice. DanTex Mar 2016 #19

Here's my take on DU's alleged Bernie or Bust population LonePirate Mar 2016 #40

Some may be GOP trolls Demsrule86 Mar 2016 #64

Indeed! FarPoint Mar 2016 #77

Let me check join date here... Godhumor Mar 2016 #18

...and the snarky one liners continues. n/t Sheepshank Mar 2016 #37

Do you follow me around waiting for me to make a snarky comment? GeorgiaPeanuts Mar 2016 #45

I don't follow you. What an absolutely ridiculous premise Sheepshank Mar 2016 #46

Math reality is what it is upaloopa Mar 2016 #30

Please realize... FarPoint Mar 2016 #76

for Who? reddread Mar 2016 #6

for The Pet Shop Boys! closeupready Mar 2016 #39

that was super cool, thanks reddread Mar 2016 #44

Impossible, actually. nt onehandle Mar 2016 #7

Impossible has a specific meaning and you aren't using it correctly. morningfog Mar 2016 #12

Yes SheenaR Mar 2016 #15

It's possible that Elvis will call CNN from Mars RandySF Mar 2016 #20

And here's another person who doesn't understand the meaning of the simple word morningfog Mar 2016 #23

Superdelegates RampageSnipa586 Mar 2016 #9

She agreed to debate in NY before the primary... GeorgiaPeanuts Mar 2016 #11

Nothing in that post is true upaloopa Mar 2016 #34

Not if Bernie calls her out on all the lies she's told. nt RampageSnipa586 Mar 2016 #84

Isn't it 528 that screwed up big-time when predicting Michigan? n/t woodsprite Mar 2016 #13

538 and all the polling agencies on which they depend. Which is pretty much everyone. stevenleser Mar 2016 #17

Like NY and CA? morningfog Mar 2016 #24

CA was contested in 2008 JI7 Mar 2016 #54

Not to mention they were only polling likely Democratic voters and didn't factor independents... CalvinballPro Mar 2016 #29

Exactly. When you look at the Dems only vote, then their model was right. n/t Yavin4 Mar 2016 #61

But it isnt fully over yet, so I wish both groups would just allow the candidates to do Jackie Wilson Said Mar 2016 #57

Math.... HumanityExperiment Mar 2016 #16

Three things paulthompson Mar 2016 #21

Silver gives Hillary a 86% chance of winning California hack89 Mar 2016 #25

Right, but... paulthompson Mar 2016 #32

So you retract your second point? The one that depends on Silver's analysis? nt hack89 Mar 2016 #36

What? paulthompson Mar 2016 #41

And by the way... paulthompson Mar 2016 #43

You seem to be confusing odds of winning with amount won mythology Mar 2016 #48

No paulthompson Mar 2016 #50

Not true Demsrule86 Mar 2016 #78

Illinois Demsrule86 Mar 2016 #79

BREAKING NEWS: it's really hard to win. File under "The Chelsea Clinton Discoveries," closeupready Mar 2016 #22

Bernie Sanders' Path to the Nomination SHRED Mar 2016 #26

It certainly looks possible. Vincardog Mar 2016 #28

More possible than the HRC camp let's on SHRED Mar 2016 #31

When to going gets tough... Vincardog Mar 2016 #33

So, he's going to win NY, PA and NJ? Garrett78 Mar 2016 #58

What are you guys talking about? DemocracyDirect Mar 2016 #27

A revolution is not about delegates. mmonk Mar 2016 #35

Oh that pesky MATH UMTerp01 Mar 2016 #38

It will be almost impossible for Sanders to meet these targets Gothmog Mar 2016 #42

Yes it is really hard ibegurpard Mar 2016 #49

What is the harm of Bernie continuing? I think it makes both her and Hillary stronger. Jackie Wilson Said Mar 2016 #51

Hillary will not be President. Optimism Mar 2016 #52

Not Bernie Demsrule86 Mar 2016 #80

No one ever said it would be easy awake Mar 2016 #53

#FeelTheMath lunamagica Mar 2016 #56

It's math folks Demsrule86 Mar 2016 #62

K&R mcar Mar 2016 #69

Sanders has a huge campaign account KingFlorez Mar 2016 #71

DU rec... SidDithers Mar 2016 #74

now, you realize Bernie supporters are going to spit on you shoes for that, you horrrible person you Bill USA Mar 2016 #82

Everything he has achieved has been really hard. PowerToThePeople Mar 2016 #83