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2016 Postmortem

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)

20. Not a taunt...

Reply to cs1058 (Reply #7)

Mon Feb 29, 2016, 08:35 AM

Feb 2016

The reality is that if Bernie does not win MA, what is his plausible path to the nomination? Demographically, it's one of the most favorable states for him. Nate Silver's model shows that he needs to win MA by more than 11 points to be on pace for winning the nomination.

At the end of the day, you have to win more delegates than your opponent, and to that, you have to win STATES. And with the Dem primary using proportional votes, it will be extremely hard for Snders to overcome a 150-200 delegate deficit. It's just math and probability. I'd be saying the same thing if Clinton were in his position.

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Highlight:

"There is going to be a dogfight in Massachusetts," says Feeney, MA chair of the Sanders' campaign [View all] Samantha Feb 2016 OP

Probably nearly split delegates. JaneyVee Feb 2016 #1

Agreed. The delegates here will be split. aaaaaa5a Feb 2016 #2

If Bernie loses Massachusetts, it's goodnight Irene alcibiades_mystery Feb 2016 #3

what you wish for cs1058 Feb 2016 #7

That would be an interesting point if it wasn't the 10,000th time I've heard it today alcibiades_mystery Feb 2016 #14

Not a taunt... Adrahil Feb 2016 #20

Real Clear Politics average-1.5% spread cs1058 Feb 2016 #4

Wow -- you know what is interesting Samantha Feb 2016 #6

Based on the divergence between SC polls and exit polls and the alleged results, merrily Feb 2016 #5

The polling that favors Clinton is done by pollsters who overstated her support in New Hampshire. Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #8

This is very interesting Samantha Feb 2016 #9

Massachusetts will be close, but we ought to prevail (same for Minnesota and Colorado). Attorney in Texas Feb 2016 #10

True about the Dixie States, Conservatives in both parties do well in primaries Dragonfli Feb 2016 #13

Nice. nt. Land of Enchantment Feb 2016 #12

There are many more Independents in Mass... Land of Enchantment Feb 2016 #11

This is exactly what I was looking for Samantha Feb 2016 #15

We are not Independents and those who registered in MA as Independents made a mistake and seaglass Feb 2016 #19

Mass is a hybrid state-you are wrong Land of Enchantment Feb 2016 #21

I was wondering about this and was going to look it up last night but "time wouldn't let me" Samantha Feb 2016 #23

Of course I am not wrong about how voting works in my own state. UNENROLLED voters can vote seaglass Mar 2016 #24

Losing MA breaks the Clinton campaign, but a close race keeps Bernie alive. basselope Feb 2016 #16

Good point Samantha Feb 2016 #17

Sam--see #21...nt Land of Enchantment Feb 2016 #22

This is way too close for that nadinbrzezinski Feb 2016 #18