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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Superdelegates offsetting the results of primaries is unconstitutional IMHO [View all]Oilwellian
(12,647 posts)65. Here is what will happen if the SD's go rogue
and vote against the majority. I think it's a great write-up of the possible scenario that has never happened so far but could:
(snip)
Q: From everything youve told me so far, I cant understand why youre calling Superdelegate votes irrelevant. It seems to me like they have the same voting power as a normal delegate, and this puts Sanders in a tremendous hole from the word go.
A: Heres why it doesnt matter: Superdelegates have never decided a Democratic nomination. It would be insane, even by the corrupt standards of the Democratic National Committee, if a small group of party elites went against the will of the people to choose the presidential nominee.
This has already been an incredibly tense election, and Sanders voters are already expressing their unwillingness to vote for Clinton in the general election. When you look at the astounding numbers from Iowa and New Hampshire, where more than 80 percent of young voters have chosen Sanders over Clinton, regardless of gender, its clear that Clinton already finds herself in a very tenuous position for the general election. It will be tough to motivate young supporters, but any hint that Bernie was screwed by the establishment will result in total abandonment.
Democrats win when turnout is high, and if the DNC decides to go against the will of the people and force Clinton down the electorates throat, theyd be committing political suicide.
The important thing to know here is that Superdelegates are merely pledged to a candidate. We know who they support because theyve stated it publicly, or been asked by journalists. They are not committed, and can change at any time. If Bernie Sanders wins the popular vote, he will be the nominee. End of story.
Q: But its not the end of the story, is it? Hasnt the DNC pulled some shady shit already?
A: Oh yeah. They totally rigged the debate schedule to limit Sanders exposure, and now that hes gaining ground on Clinton, theyre desperate to add more. Sanders probably won the popular vote in Iowa, but the party elite there are refusing to release popular vote totals, even though thats exactly what they did in 2008. Its been an embarrassment of Clinton protectionism from the very beginning.
However, that doesnt mean theyll overthrow the will of the people when it comes to the presidential nomination. Assuming Sanders wins the popular vote nationwide, and assuming the Superdelegates put Clinton over the top, lets consider the consequences:
1. Sanders supporters abandon Clinton completely, cutting off a huge portion of her base.
2. Massive protests at the convention, and a party split in half.
3. Republicans have the easiest attack in presidential election history: Her own party didnt even want her!
4. The perception that Clinton is a dishonest politician grows wings, and even if people are reluctant to vote for the GOP nominee, an independent like Bloomberg could strip away an awful lot of votes.
All of this spells disaster for the Democrats. It may not be too corrupt for the DNC to imaginetheyve got good imaginationsbut its too transparent to execute. The winner of the delegate count from state primaries and caucuses will win the nomination, and the Superdelegates will fall in line. Just as they have in every single election since the system was implemented. (Including in 2008, when this same concern was raisedwould Superdelegates cost Obama the nomination?)
Even the Democratic power structure isnt so short-sighted that it would cut off its nose to spite its face.
(Much more)
http://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2016/02/after-sanders-big-win-in-new-hampshire-establishme.html
A: Heres why it doesnt matter: Superdelegates have never decided a Democratic nomination. It would be insane, even by the corrupt standards of the Democratic National Committee, if a small group of party elites went against the will of the people to choose the presidential nominee.
This has already been an incredibly tense election, and Sanders voters are already expressing their unwillingness to vote for Clinton in the general election. When you look at the astounding numbers from Iowa and New Hampshire, where more than 80 percent of young voters have chosen Sanders over Clinton, regardless of gender, its clear that Clinton already finds herself in a very tenuous position for the general election. It will be tough to motivate young supporters, but any hint that Bernie was screwed by the establishment will result in total abandonment.
Democrats win when turnout is high, and if the DNC decides to go against the will of the people and force Clinton down the electorates throat, theyd be committing political suicide.
The important thing to know here is that Superdelegates are merely pledged to a candidate. We know who they support because theyve stated it publicly, or been asked by journalists. They are not committed, and can change at any time. If Bernie Sanders wins the popular vote, he will be the nominee. End of story.
Q: But its not the end of the story, is it? Hasnt the DNC pulled some shady shit already?
A: Oh yeah. They totally rigged the debate schedule to limit Sanders exposure, and now that hes gaining ground on Clinton, theyre desperate to add more. Sanders probably won the popular vote in Iowa, but the party elite there are refusing to release popular vote totals, even though thats exactly what they did in 2008. Its been an embarrassment of Clinton protectionism from the very beginning.
However, that doesnt mean theyll overthrow the will of the people when it comes to the presidential nomination. Assuming Sanders wins the popular vote nationwide, and assuming the Superdelegates put Clinton over the top, lets consider the consequences:
1. Sanders supporters abandon Clinton completely, cutting off a huge portion of her base.
2. Massive protests at the convention, and a party split in half.
3. Republicans have the easiest attack in presidential election history: Her own party didnt even want her!
4. The perception that Clinton is a dishonest politician grows wings, and even if people are reluctant to vote for the GOP nominee, an independent like Bloomberg could strip away an awful lot of votes.
All of this spells disaster for the Democrats. It may not be too corrupt for the DNC to imaginetheyve got good imaginationsbut its too transparent to execute. The winner of the delegate count from state primaries and caucuses will win the nomination, and the Superdelegates will fall in line. Just as they have in every single election since the system was implemented. (Including in 2008, when this same concern was raisedwould Superdelegates cost Obama the nomination?)
Even the Democratic power structure isnt so short-sighted that it would cut off its nose to spite its face.
(Much more)
http://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2016/02/after-sanders-big-win-in-new-hampshire-establishme.html
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Superdelegates offsetting the results of primaries is unconstitutional IMHO [View all]
Samantha
Feb 2016
OP
Wanting a little democracy with your Democratic Party may just put you in the poo-poo firing line!
Kip Humphrey
Feb 2016
#2
To select some (most, actually) of the delegates to the national convention
Freddie Stubbs
Feb 2016
#22
i suggest you consider what happens in 2016 if superdelegates overrule the will of the people?
highprincipleswork
Feb 2016
#103
The process of voting or caucusing in primaries is governed by the states and the constitution,
aidbo
Feb 2016
#14
The amount of adverse opinion on this subject is too overwhelming to post here
Samantha
Feb 2016
#33
Exactly. Plus, the SCOTUS has ruled that political parties are private organizations.
stopbush
Feb 2016
#31
Is it your position political parties do not have to comport to state constitutions
Samantha
Feb 2016
#37
I hope you are right -- but at some point I am hoping that we insist on getting rid of these
Samantha
Feb 2016
#42
So you would be okay with Republicans registering as Democrats and voting in our primaries?
randome
Feb 2016
#40
Some are doing it now as we "talk" because they are crossing over to support Bernie
Samantha
Feb 2016
#44
Please reread the first paragraph under "Superdelegates are Unconstitutional in the OP" (eom)
Samantha
Feb 2016
#51
Reminds me of when people complain about abridgment of their 1st amendment rights..
aidbo
Feb 2016
#69
As you and I both know, politicians sometimes say what is politically convenient at the moment
Samantha
Feb 2016
#48
Well, who elects Boy Scout leaders? Teacher union leaders? Who appoints Supreme Court justices?
randome
Feb 2016
#34
According to Wikipedia Super Delagates Include State Elected Officials-Gov, Senator and Representa
Stallion
Feb 2016
#77
So you can confidently say things such as brokered conventions and lobbyists becoming superdelegates
Samantha
Feb 2016
#85
The Constitution does not govern the primary process - and primary voters have no Constitutional
Empowerer
Feb 2016
#81
then they all have honest, but low fact based constitutional law, opinions on this matter
Sheepshank
Feb 2016
#98
Many people who share my opinion are easily located with a simple Google search
Samantha
Feb 2016
#104
Just as many are right here on your thread and do not share your opinion. n/t
Sheepshank
Feb 2016
#106
There is no constitutional basis for the primaries, for parties, for the whole fake rigged game.
Warren Stupidity
Feb 2016
#94