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2016 Postmortem

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Texas Lawyer

(350 posts)
Thu Sep 27, 2012, 12:54 PM Sep 2012

Rethinking "what is a 'swing state'"? We must question the narrow conventional view that limits us [View all]

The "conventional wisdom" endlessly repeated by the media and punditry is that this race presidential will be decided by just a few swing states; here is a typical repetition of that conventional thinking:

The true swing states are the ones that matter—the ones where the race still is truly competitive between President Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney. And at this point, that list probably has narrowed to just nine of the 50 states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.


http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/09/25/political-perceptions-in-new-swing-state-math-obama-retains-an-advantage/

We should reject this idea of a small contest in a few venues and bring this election to a broader debate about our national future (a debate that we are winning handily).

Why is Iowa a "swing state" but not Indiana or Missouri? The President's 5% advantage in Iowa is as large as Romney's 5% advantage in Indiana and Missouri. Source: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

Why are Nevada and Virginia considered "swing states" while Tennessee, Montana, and Arizona aren't? The President's 6% advantage in Nevada and Virginia mirrors Romney's 6% lead in Tennessee, Montana, and Arizona. Source: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

The President's 8% lead in "swing state" Wisconsin equals Romney's 8% lead in Georgia and South Carolina. Source: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

We need to expand the map! The debate about our future is national in its implications and so it should not be so narrowly limited in its scope. We must bring this debate to more states and we must bring this debate to down-ballot races in those states.
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PSA: "Swing State" is an opinion, not a fact. bemildred Sep 2012 #1
No. Swing states are very real things thanks to the Electoral College. LovePeacock Sep 2012 #3
"Very Real" opinions about future events. bemildred Sep 2012 #5
The 2008 "swing states" were as follows: LovePeacock Sep 2012 #7
I expect they do something every election, that's not the question. bemildred Sep 2012 #8
If not for Presidential elections.. fun n serious Sep 2012 #2
Swing states have nothing to do with the margin of lead that Obama or Romney may have. former9thward Sep 2012 #4
I'm not suggesting that the campaign ought to devote vast resources to winning NY, CA, or TX. I'm Texas Lawyer Sep 2012 #9
You are probably right but that is not the focus of the Obama campaign. former9thward Sep 2012 #10
I recall that, but that strategy was from a time before the President was a 4-to-1 favorite. Now Texas Lawyer Sep 2012 #11
Because even if those states are in play, they still don't matter. k2qb3 Sep 2012 #6
Three thoughts: First, those states DO matter down-ballot -- the President cannot pass his agenda if Texas Lawyer Sep 2012 #12
The possible Congressional seats to be won aren't necessarily in presidential swing states muriel_volestrangler Sep 2012 #13
Many of the tightest races are in the "expanded map" winnable states: Senate races in AZ, IN, MO, MT Texas Lawyer Sep 2012 #14
If we can't poll higher in Indiana and Missouri I doubt Arizona or South Carolina or Jennicut Sep 2012 #15
Even if we do not win Arizona, South Carolina, or Georgia, a campaign which lifted the campaign to Texas Lawyer Sep 2012 #16
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