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2016 Postmortem
Showing Original Post only (View all)Rethinking "what is a 'swing state'"? We must question the narrow conventional view that limits us [View all]
The "conventional wisdom" endlessly repeated by the media and punditry is that this race presidential will be decided by just a few swing states; here is a typical repetition of that conventional thinking:
The true swing states are the ones that matterthe ones where the race still is truly competitive between President Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney. And at this point, that list probably has narrowed to just nine of the 50 states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/09/25/political-perceptions-in-new-swing-state-math-obama-retains-an-advantage/
We should reject this idea of a small contest in a few venues and bring this election to a broader debate about our national future (a debate that we are winning handily).
Why is Iowa a "swing state" but not Indiana or Missouri? The President's 5% advantage in Iowa is as large as Romney's 5% advantage in Indiana and Missouri. Source: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map
Why are Nevada and Virginia considered "swing states" while Tennessee, Montana, and Arizona aren't? The President's 6% advantage in Nevada and Virginia mirrors Romney's 6% lead in Tennessee, Montana, and Arizona. Source: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map
The President's 8% lead in "swing state" Wisconsin equals Romney's 8% lead in Georgia and South Carolina. Source: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map
We need to expand the map! The debate about our future is national in its implications and so it should not be so narrowly limited in its scope. We must bring this debate to more states and we must bring this debate to down-ballot races in those states.
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Rethinking "what is a 'swing state'"? We must question the narrow conventional view that limits us [View all]
Texas Lawyer
Sep 2012
OP
Swing states have nothing to do with the margin of lead that Obama or Romney may have.
former9thward
Sep 2012
#4
I'm not suggesting that the campaign ought to devote vast resources to winning NY, CA, or TX. I'm
Texas Lawyer
Sep 2012
#9
I recall that, but that strategy was from a time before the President was a 4-to-1 favorite. Now
Texas Lawyer
Sep 2012
#11
Three thoughts: First, those states DO matter down-ballot -- the President cannot pass his agenda if
Texas Lawyer
Sep 2012
#12
The possible Congressional seats to be won aren't necessarily in presidential swing states
muriel_volestrangler
Sep 2012
#13
Many of the tightest races are in the "expanded map" winnable states: Senate races in AZ, IN, MO, MT
Texas Lawyer
Sep 2012
#14
If we can't poll higher in Indiana and Missouri I doubt Arizona or South Carolina or
Jennicut
Sep 2012
#15
Even if we do not win Arizona, South Carolina, or Georgia, a campaign which lifted the campaign to
Texas Lawyer
Sep 2012
#16