NASA Has Some Good News About The Asteroid That Could Hit Earth

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. Would 99.9983% do you?

Chance of giant asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 falls to 0.0017%

At about 40–90 metres (130-300ft) in width, asteroid 2024 YR4 is far smaller than that which ended the reign of the dinosaurs – a body that was about six to nine miles (10-15km) wide. However, an impact with Earth could still have caused death and destruction: the asteroid was deemed capable of releasing energy equivalent to 7.8 megatonnes of TNT explosive.

As a result, a planetary defence response was triggered, beginning with experts closely tracking the trajectory of the asteroid. Initially the likelihood of an impact in 2032 rose, reaching 3.1% on 18 February this year, but data from Nasa reveals it is now 0.0017%.

In other words, there is 99.9983% chance the asteroid will miss Earth. Indeed, the “city-killing” asteroid currently ranks zero on the Torino impact hazard scale that ranges from a no-risk nought to a global-catastrophe 10.

The change was not unexpected: as the European Space Agency previously pointed out, an asteroid’s impact probability often rises before dropping off as additional observations are made.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/feb/24/chance-giant-asteroid-hitting-earth-2032-falls