Germany Rejected Nuclear Power--and Deadly Emissions Spiked

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7. Who, with a rudimentary understanding of electricity generation, would have not predicted this?

After all, if you take away a source of relatively carbon-free electricity, and electrical customer demand remains the same, then what else is there but existing CO2-emitting generation to pick up the difference? Any existing renewables are already dispatched to the max since their energy is least-cost (once built it's just the variable O&M cost), so they can't pick up any more. And any new renewable capacity takes time to build and get online, and then operates at low capacity factors and so a lot of it GW-wise has to be built.

Nobody looked at what generation was being shut down and what generation existed and was being built and didn't see an increase in fossil fuel generation for at least a few years?