JOLTS - Job Opening & Labor Turnover - nice graph of Openings and Quits. A slight decline in labor mkt conditions

[progree]

in June, but a slow and steady decline since the beginning of 2022. (March 2022 was the first Fed interest rate increase).

Job openings dip slightly in June amid signs of 'turbulence' in labor market, Josh Shaper, Yahoo Finance, 7/30/24
. . .
New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday showed that 8.18 million jobs were open at the end of June, a decrease from the 8.23 million job openings in May. May's figure was revised higher from the 8.14 million open jobs initially reported. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the report to show 8 million openings in June. ((so: May; 8.14 -- > revised up -- > 8.23, June: 8.18. Lower numbers are worse for job seekers))

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed 5.3 million hires were made during the month, a slight decrease from May's revised figure of 5.7 million. The hiring rate declined to 3.4% from 3.6% in May. ((so: May: 5.7 - > June: 5.3))

Also, in Tuesday's report, the quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, sat at 2.1% for the second straight month. In June, there were 3.28 million quits, down from 3.4 million in May and the lowest number of quits in a month since November 2020.

. . . After the release of Tuesday's data, former US Secretary of Labor Seth Harris told Yahoo Finance the recent decline in quits indicates that workers are "feeling a little bit less secure that if they leave their jobs, they'll be able to find another job."

This is one of the early signs of "turbulence" in the labor market data, per Harris, and one of the reasons he believes the Federal Reserve should be cutting interest rates when it announces its next policy decision on Wednesday.

It says hardly anyone expects a rate cut in the July meeting, but the press conference Wednesday 2:30 PM ET may set up a rate cut for September.