September CPI preview: Inflation seen holding firm near 3% as tariffs complicate Fed's path

[mahatmakanejeeves]

2. Everyone is waiting for Friday's big inflation report. Here's what to expect

ECONOMY
Everyone is waiting for Friday's big inflation report. Here's what to expect

PUBLISHED THU, OCT 23 2025 3:22 PM EDT
UPDATED THU, OCT 23 2025 3:22 PM EDT
Jeff Cox
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
@JEFF.COX.752

KEY POINTS
• The Friday release of September's consumer price index report is pretty much the only game in town this month for a Wall Street that is hungry for data, raising the chances for it to be a market-moving event.
• The report, which was supposed to be released Oct. 15, will be the last significant economic reading before the Fed's policy meeting that concludes Wednesday.
• "Because we haven't gotten any government data in the recent past, I think all of the market's focus and all of the market's attention is going to be directed onto this one report," said Troy Ludtka, senior U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

The Friday release of September's consumer price index report is pretty much the only game in town this month for a Wall Street that is hungry for data, raising the chances for it to be a market-moving event.

While the actual numbers are expecting to land about where they've been in recent months, the dearth of official economic reports, thanks to the government shutdown, means even a slight deviation could cause an outsized impact.

"Because we haven't gotten any government data in the recent past, I think all of the market's focus and all of the market's attention is going to be directed onto this one report," said Troy Ludtka, senior U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. "This is going to be the report to end all reports."

As far as the Wall Street consensus goes, though, the CPI release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics looks to be more of the same. … Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the monthly all-items reading to increase by 0.4%, the same as a month ago, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.1%, or 0.2 percentage point higher than the August level. Excluding food and energy, core CPI is projected to show a 0.3% monthly increase and a 3.1% annual level, both the same as in August. The yearly rate would be the highest since January.

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