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progree

(12,468 posts)
1. month over month CPI of +0.4% and core CPI of +0.3% are hot. These annualize to 4.9% and 3.7% respectively
Fri Oct 24, 2025, 12:30 AM
Friday

Last edited Fri Oct 24, 2025, 09:23 AM - Edit history (1)

This would result in the 3-month average of 3.99% annualized for the CPI, and 3.94% annualized for the core CPI.

Frankly I don't give a fat one for the year-over-year since I'm interested in CURRENT and RECENT inflation, not in some average where half the data is March 2025 and before. Four of these months are Biden-era months if you include January 2025 as I do.

What's even more exasperating is when they talk about the year-over-year (aka 12 month average) being the same as it was last month (e.g. core CPI staying the same at 3.1% "on the year" ), as if core inflation isn't getting worse. Only a literal fucking idiot believes that.

A little mathematical fact: when the month-over-month number (Sept 2025 over August 2025) entering the 12 month window exceeds the month over month number leaving the 12 month window (Sept 2024 over August 2024) , then the 12 month average rises.

Au similar, the 12-month average falls when the month-over-month number entering the 12 month window is less than the month over month number leaving the 12 month window,.

I really, really do not care in the slightest, nor do I care in the least, how the latest month-over-month change compares to the month-over-month change a year ago. But somehow the media is wedded to this nonsense, and uses this as their gauge of whether inflation is rising or falling or staying the same.

Edited to add - The report is out, and everything is about 0.1 percentage point less than the estimates,
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143552691
Graphs: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143552691#post10

The KK! Brigade is having a field day with it (Krasnov Krasnov! Brigade)

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