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peppertree

(22,965 posts)
2. Seems to me the IMF went out of its way to be pragmatic, and they should get credit for that
Fri Mar 18, 2022, 01:10 PM
Mar 2022

It can't be easy to throw away decades of dogma - but they did in this case, for the sake of coming to an arrangement that might actually work.

Of course though, it won't work if Macri or anyone like him gets back into power next year.

They'll be sure to enact (and by decree) currency and financial deregulation - leading to a another cycle of asset dollarization, offshoring, massive foreign borrowing to cover that, and before long another debt crisis.

The "financial bicycle" as it's euphemistically called in Argentina.

If that happens, the refinance deal just agreed to would fall right through - forcing the IMF into another bailout, if only to recover what Trump forced them to lend Macri in the first place.

All this is quite possible - even likely. Because for all his work ethic and good intentions, Fernández is politically clumsy, lacks charisma, and has been unlucky besides.

So short of some unexpected event intervening in his favor, the stage is set for another tragedy, I'm sorry to say.

That said, thanks as always for your detailed and thoughtful reading, Judi. Have a pleasant weekend, and Happy Spring!

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