STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 20, 2016

[Chichiri]

48 Days to California.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,444, Sanders 1,207 (Clinton +237).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,946, Sanders 1,245 (Clinton +701).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 582 pledged delegates, 41.6% of remaining.
Sanders needs 819 pledged delegates, 58.5% of remaining.


Latest Results: April 19

New York: Clinton 139, Sanders 108 (Clinton +31).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Clinton +20, Sanders -20.
Versus Adjusted Targets: Clinton +20, Sanders -20.


Next Primary: April 26

CT, DE, MD, PA, RI: 384 delegates total.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 201, Clinton 183.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 221, Clinton 163.



Comments
Out of the month-long dark tunnel, into the bright sunshine!

Yesterday, before the New York election results came in, Nate Silver considered three possible scenarios for New York. If Bernie won by a few points, it would be, not merely a shitstorm, but a "shit hurricane." It would be a bigger upset than Michigan, and would signify real trouble for Hillary's campaign. If Hillary won by a few points, it would be a setback for Sanders, but he would get positive press coverage because he managed to set expectations so low. Lastly, if Hillary won by fifteen points, it would signal that Hillary will do well in states like Pennsylvania, and would make it almost impossible for Sanders to catch up.

Hillary won by sixteen points.

There's really not much need to spin these numbers, is there? 1,400 pledged delegates remain to be allocated, and Sanders needs 819 of them. If any numbers wonk knows of a way he can get them, he or she is awfully good at keeping it a secret.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.


Pun Of The Day
I just can't picture myself taking selfies!