It's unfortunate that there is no possible third candidate at the moment - eventually, Bill Shorten will become leader, and I think he has the potential to be a great Labor figure. But he hasn't yet been in parliament long enough; nor has he lived down his role in the events of 2010.
I think the coup against Rudd was badly managed – there was a better way, and that was for Julia to go to Kevin and say "I've got the numbers to roll you, but I will support you through the next election provided I have your word that you will step down in twelve months and hand the leadership to me". If she and her backers had really been thinking of the party and not their own self-interest, that's how it would have been done. But her ambition led her to do two foolish things – publicly knife her leader, and switch her allegiance from the Left to the Right, just for the sake of getting the job early. And for those two reasons she is still mistrusted by the electorate, and I don't think it's going to get better. She should never have allowed her colleagues to so publicly humiliate Rudd this week, and she shouldn't have done it herself, and she proved once again that her political judgment is sadly lacking. Her praise of Rudd in parliament yesterday afternoon sounded like hypocritical baloney – no wonder the Opposition were laughing; for once, I was in agreement with them, although I didn't feel like laughing.
Rudd was definitely delusional if he thought he had any chance – I can't believe his numbers man (Kim Carr) would have told him he had the numbers to roll Julia, so we must put it down to his own hubris. He was a good Foreign Minister, and now he's destroyed his political career, probably for ever. It's a shame, because the man has vision that Gillard lacks – she's a good administrator, a good negotiator and a good parliamentarian, but she completely lacks inspiration. She is also notably lacking in the judgment of the public that Rudd has in spades. The shame is that they could actually have been a good team had they been able to put their own egos to the service of the party.
As for the Libs – they certainly have the party vote at the moment, but a leader who is detested as much as Gillard is. If they ever wake up and put Malcolm Turnbull back, Labor is definitely finished.
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