New data reveals FEMA missed major flood risks at Camp Mystic

[douglas9]

More cabins and buildings at Camp Mystic — the tragic site of more than two dozen deaths in the Texas flood — were at risk of flooding than what the federal government had previously reported, according to new analysis from NPR, PBS's FRONTLINE and data scientists.

Maps by First Street, a climate risk modeling company in New York City, show at least 17 structures in the path of flood waters, compared to maps produced by FEMA, highlighting a longstanding risk facing many Americans. The analysis also shows at least four cabins for young campers were in an area designated by FEMA as an extreme flood hazard, where water moves at its highest velocity and depth.

For decades, FEMA's maps have failed to take rainfall and flash flooding into account, relying instead on data from coastal storm surges and large river flooding, even as climate change is supercharging rainfall intensity. Nationwide, First Street found more than twice as many Americans live in dangerous flood-prone areas than FEMA's maps suggest, leaving many homeowners and even local officials unaware of the risk.

"The unknown flood risk is bad from a preparation, financial standpoint, but there's a human element here that often gets overlooked," said Jeremy Porter, head of Climate Implications at First Street.

FEMA's maps can serve as critical warnings to the public about potential danger, but they are also one of the few ways the federal government can require people to take precautionary measures. FEMA requires homeowners in certain flood prone areas to build in ways that could help them withstand a flood, often by elevating their homes.

https://www.npr.org/2025/07/09/nx-s1-5460970/fema-texas-flooding-floodplain-camp-mystic