Egypt unrest: Morsi supporters shot dead in Cairo

[happyslug]

17. Actually there is a way, but it involves how much discipline exists in the Army

Last edited Mon Jul 8, 2013, 04:53 PM - Edit history (1)

Lets remember the Egyptian Army is NOT a volunteer army by a Universal Military Service Army. Thus its enlisted ranks are pulled from the General Population NOT just from people who want to serve in the Army. Now, Special units tend to be volunteers, i.e. people who wanted to be in that service, but even these are NOT true volunteers, for you get Volunteers who prefer to serve their mandatory Service time in Special Services rather then in regular units.

Thus a lot of enlistees in the Egyptian Army serve due to it being mandatory, not because they want to serve. A side affect of this is you have better relationship between the general population and the enlistee ranks and with that better relationship common views on what is best for Egypt.

The Classic case is the US Army in Vietnam and Afghanistan. In Vietnam the US Army was draftee, you had massive support among Americans for Intervention in 1965 and as long as you had that massive support the US Army did well in Vietnam. When the Majority of Americans turned against the war in mid 1968, the Army saw a rapid decline in the fighting ability of US Troops in Vietnam. By 1972 the Army was so bad, we had to withdraw or face disaster given the bad morale of the troops in the Field. What cause this general decline? The simple fact the people back home opposed the War and thus so did the troops.

In a mercenary Army (what the US calls a "Volunteer Army", enlistees enlist due to economics or a desire to serve, not because they have to. Thus you have a separation of the troops and the general population. In Afghanistan, the war was fought by an Volunteer Army, and unlike Vietnam the Majority of Americans opposed the War in Afghanistan from day one. Given that the Army was Volunteer did not affect the attitude of the troops, through you saw a rapid deterioration of the quality of troops as the war went on (most Countries adopt the draft to keep up troop quality. when increase quantity of troops are need, more then any other reason, the better the average enlistee is the better is the over all army).

Notice the smaller volunteer army was still capable to fighting even ten years into a war opposed by most Americans, while the larger Draftee army that went into Vietnam could not survive four years of such opposition. The only problem with Volunteer armies is that when the fighting starts, the number of quality enlistees decline and with it an over all decline in quality in the army as a whole. The solution is accept this decline or draft. If you have a popular war, the draft is the better solution. If you have an unpopular war, the Army has to accept less quality in enlistees.

In the case of Egypt, the Draft was desired to keep the quality up, given the size of the Egyptian army. The down side is it is a lousy army to suppress a popular revolt. Certain elite units may be loyal, but even they are affected by the draft, for many people would prefer to serve in elite units if they have to serve. Thus even elite units sees the affect of the draft, even if all the members of that elite units are "Volunteers" for many volunteer to have a say where they must serve.

Thus the enlistee ranks of the Army is the big question mark. Will they obey orders or will they just stand around (I do NOT expect them to break ranks, shoot their officers and join the Moslem Brotherhood in their own coup, that requires getting to many individuals to work together, for the officer corp provides the leadership for the military, and if the enlistee ranks reject that leadership, they become individuals not a combat unit until someone fills that role and that will require what the senior NCOs do).

If some of the company grade and field grade officers support the Moslem Brotherhood , that could provide the needed leadership, but without that leadership the best the Moslem Brotherhood can hope for is a refusal to open fire by the enlistees AND that is a big fear on part of the Army in this coup (if you remember the Revolution, this appears to be what happened, the troops just refused to open fire).

The Moslem Brotherhood has extensive contacts throughout Egypt and the army and especially the enlistee ranks. The Moslem Brotherhood has an idea of what the various units will do and not do. Thus the real issue is how much can the Moslem Brotherhood push? And will the drafted enlistees open fire? Big question, but one that we will see the answer to in the coming weeks.