Payrolls rose by 209,000 in June, less than expected, as jobs growth wobbles

[progree]

25. Payroll jobs growth (Establishment Survey) vs. Employed (Household Survey)

This was of interest to me today:

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
YEAR JAN FEB MAR etc.
2021 494 575 784 286 482 693 769 663 557 781 614 569
2022 364 904 414 254 364 370 568 352 350 324 290 239
2023 472 248 217 217 306 209
Last 2 months are preliminary

Last 3 months: +244k/month average (quite decent, you know how I like 3 month averages)

Last 6 months: +278k/month average

(both averages figured using the original thousands numbers)

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# Employed (Houshold Survey), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth
YEAR JAN FEB MAR etc.
2021 --90 334 546 420 311 202 1098 429 656 528 1140 546
2022 1041 468 738 --346 317 --242 215 422 156 --257 --66 717
2023 894 177 577 139 --310 273
January and February of each year is affected by changes in population controls
Negative numbers indicated by "--" to stand out more

Last 3 months: +33k/month average,
Last 6 months: +292k/month average
(both averages figured using the original thousands numbers)

Shows how much more wobbly (that's the word of the day) the Household Survey is compared to the Establishment Survey.

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Revisions: April and May were revised down by a combined 110,000. Which means that today's headline payroll jobs number is only 99,000 higher than was reported a month ago: 209 - 110 = 99. Despite that, the 3 month average is quite decent +244k/month. Goldilocks job growth.

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Labor Force Participation Rate -- I've been much happier about this in the last 5 or so months (I used to wail and gnash my teeth about it).

LFPR age 25-54: Jan-Feb-Mar-Apr-May-Jun: 82.7 -> 83.1 -> 83.1 -> 83.3 -> 83.4 -> 83.5
(Jan 2020: 83.1 (pre-covid local peak), June 2022, 1 year ago: 82.4).
83.5 is highest since about 2002 (so much for nobody wants to work) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060


LFPR age 16+ (the official LFPR, the default LFPR) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
After falling during the pandemic, it recovered somewhat in the latter part of 2020 and all of 2021, but then stalled beginning January 2022. But it started picking up late in 2022 and early 2023. It's still well below pre-Covid and probably will never get back up to that level thanks to boomer retirements (everyone 16 and older is counted in this one, including centenarians)


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My Internet has been working flawlessly since noon yesterday when I reported it was B A A A C K. Thanks for asking