Putin would likely be replace by someone equally as bad. Russians could rise up and demand a totally different government (e.g., with Navalny) but they are cowed by fear and too many of them believe that the West has prevented them from becoming a world power, as they were as part of the USSR. Russians need an economics lesson. With a GDP smaller than that of only one of our larger states, they do not have the economic might to become a world power. Their claim to the power they do have is solely because of their nuclear arsenal. If Russians would agree to givenip that arsenal and stop their illegal wars against their neighbors, they could be welcomed back into the global economy. Otherwise, they can wither and die.
As for Iran, interesting days. The current protests may have some effect on loosening restrictions, but the ayatollahs are not giving up their power. Authoritarians do not like anyone questioning their edicts.
I had a completely crazy thought yesterday about Iran. Iran is most likely already very close to having nuclear capabilities, and their relationship with Russia may also mean that Russia has transferred nuclear technology to Iran. Preventing them from creating nuclear weapons at this point seems impossible. Perhaps, instead, the Biden administration should forget the Obama nuclear deal, which seems to be dead anyway, and negotiate to buy oil from Iran on a couple of conditions: (1) they stop selling weapons to Russia, and (2) they agree to stop funding Hezbollah.
This move helps Iran’s economy, which is badly needed, cuts off one supply of weapons for Putin, and punishes Saudi Arabia for their refusal to cooperate with the US. Israel would no doubt scream because they have become buddies with MBS, but they should rejoice if Hezbollah has fewer resources.
Yes, I know. Won’t happen.
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