Revealed: Top US Corporations Raising Prices on Americans Even as Profits Surge

[mahatmakanejeeves]

30. The oil market is not something I ordinarily follow on a day-to-day basis.

These guys look as if they are top of things.

Thanks for writing. You're making me look this up. In the words of Martha Stewart, that's a good thing.

You have to subscribe to get the .pdf download. That will set you back a mere € 2,850. And that's a US comma delimiter, not a European comma delimiter.

Oil Market Report - March 2022
Part of Oil Market Report
Fuel report — March 2022
03 March

This is an extract, full report available as PDF download

About this report

The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries.

Highlights

• Surging commodity prices and international sanctions levied against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine are expected to appreciably depress global economic growth. As a result, we have revised down our forecast for world oil demand by 1.3 mb/d for 2Q22-4Q22, resulting in 950 kb/d slower growth for 2022 on average. Total demand is now projected at 99.7 mb/d in 2022, an increase of 2.1 mb/d from 2021.

• The prospect of large-scale disruptions to Russian oil production is threatening to create a global oil supply shock. We estimate that from April, 3 mb/d of Russian oil output could be shut in as sanctions take hold and buyers shun exports. OPEC+ is, for now, sticking to its agreement to increase supply by modest monthly amounts. Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE hold substantial spare capacity that could immediately help to offset a Russian shortfall.

• Global refinery throughput estimates for 2022 have been revised down by 860 kb/d since last month’s Report as a 1.1 mb/d reduction in Russian runs is not expected to be fully offset by increases elsewhere. In 2022, refinery intake globally is projected to rise by 2.9 mb/d year-on-year to 80.8 mb/d. Despite a downgrade to demand, product markets remain tight with further stock draws expected throughout the year.

• OECD total industry stocks were drawn down by 22.1 mb in January. At 2 621 mb, inventories were 335.6 mb below the 2017-2021 average and at their lowest level since April 2014. Industry stocks covered 57.2 days of forward demand, down by 13.6 days from a year earlier. Preliminary data for the US, Europe and Japan indicate that industry stocks decreased by a further 29.8 mb in February.

• As this Report went to print, ICE Brent oil futures slid to around $100/bbl after touching an intraday high of nearly $140/bbl on 8 March. Prices jumped from $90/bbl in early February following the invasion of Ukraine and as supply concerns mounted. Prices have eased again on economic concerns, surging Covid cases in China and traders reducing positions due to extreme volatility.

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On to the April report. I'm not sure how to interpret this: "Global oil supply rose in March ..." but "Global oil inventories have decreased for 14 consecutive months ..."

Anyone?

Oil Market Report - April 2022

Flagship report — April 2022

About this report

The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries.

Highlights

Severe new lockdown measures amid surging Covid cases in China have led to a downward revision in our expectations for global oil demand in 2Q22 and for the year as a whole. Weaker-than-expected demand in OECD countries at the start of the year added to the decline. As a result, our estimate for global oil demand has been lowered by 260 kb/d for the year versus last month’s Report, and demand is now expected to average 99.4 mb/d in 2022, up by 1.9 mb/d from 2021.

• Global oil supply rose in March by 450 kb/d to 99.1 mb/d, led by non-OPEC+. Russian oil supply is expected to fall by 1.5 mb/d in April, with shut-ins projected to accelerate to around 3 mb/d from May. Despite the disruption to Russian oil supplies, lower demand expectations, steady output increases from OPEC+ members along with the US and other non OPEC+ countries, and massive stock releases from IEA member countries should prevent a sharp deficit from developing.

• Global refinery throughputs are forecast to increase by 4.4 mb/d from April to August due to new capacity and normal seasonal gains. This would allow product inventories to see the first build in two years, offering some respite to the tight market. Overall, 2022 runs are forecast to gain 3 mb/d y-o-y, but will remain below 2017 levels.

• Global oil inventories have decreased for 14 consecutive months, with February stocks 714 mb below the end-2020 level and OECD countries accounting for 70% of the decline. OECD total industry stocks fell by 42.2 mb to 2 611 mb in February, nearly double the seasonal trend. Preliminary data show a build in OECD industry stocks of 8.8 mb for March.

• Futures prices for ICE Brent were trading at around $104/bbl as this Report went to print, down nearly $10/bbl following IEA collective stock release actions and a massive US release from the strategic petroleum reserve. Benchmark crude prices are now back to near pre-invasion levels but remain troublingly high and are a serious threat for the global economic outlook.

{snip}