US officials say Russia has asked China for military help in Ukraine

[BumRushDaShow]

73. Well in the first case

the old adage "follow the $$$" applies. I.e., to paraphrase another old adage - "There are no permanent friends nor permanent enemies, only permanent interests".

It ends up being the job of the savvy politicos to spot those opportunities beneficial to them, that might also be beneficial to a current "enemy" if there is a strategic need to switch alliances. All that outreach to Maduro is a perfect example of that. The initial outreach to Iran for a similar reason (at least in terms of restoring the nuclear agreement) got stymied (for now) after their missile barrage on Irbil aimed at the (currently vacant) U.S. Consulate there.

And with respect to China - they want to be the dominant power on that side of the world. They also want Taiwan but have watched what happened with Russia "wanting" all of Ukraine. So they are carefully re-balancing their expectations and future plans, including having Russia out of the picture financially. I.e., you already have this going on -

Business
China buying more cheap and sanctioned oil from Iran and Venezuela

Bloomberg


Jan 11, 2022

China doubled down on imports of Iranian and Venezuelan crude in 2021, taking the most from the U.S.-sanctioned regimes in three years, as refiners brushed off the risk of penalties to scoop up cheap oil. Crude processors in the world’s biggest importer were observed to have bought 324 million barrels from Iran and Venezuela in 2021, about 53% more than the year before, according to data from market intelligence firm Kpler. That’s the most since 2018, when China took 352 million barrels from the two nations.

Chinese buyers, particularly private refiners, have benefited from Washington’s tough line on Iran and Venezuela, continuing to buy their oil long after their counterparts elsewhere in Asia ceased purchases. The risk that non-U.S. entities may lose access to the U.S. financial system or have their American assets frozen if found guilty of breaching the sanctions hasn’t dissuaded them.

A glut of unsold cargoes, rising international prices, and the issuance of more crude import quotas by Beijing, have incentivized the private refiners, known as teapots, to snap up more oil from the pariah states. These shipments typically don’t show up in official customs data.

“This surge was triggered by rising crude prices, making Iranian crude, anecdotally, up to 10% cheaper when delivered into China,” said Anoop Singh, head of East of Suez tanker research at Braemar ACM Shipbroking Pte Ltd. The U.S. also eased up on sanctions enforcement as it tried to get a nuclear agreement with Iran, he said.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/01/11/business/china-sanctioned-iran-venezuela-oil/

With what has now happened with Russia and our outreach to Venezuela (and Iran - at least recently in general), what was once "done in the dark" could be give the tacit "we'll look away" from the U.S., in exchange for something else...

All kinds of little bargaining chips out there.