Mark my word, Trump will declare martial law before the mid-term elections

[Cirsium]

32. "Mark my words..."

I don't think you're actually responding to what the first poster said.

They didn't say Trump was omnipotent. They didn't say the states were powerless. Did anyone here say either of those things? I think not. They didn't say martial law would be successful or that the entire country would simply comply. I don't think anyone here said either of those things, either. They said Trump would declare it, and that he viewed that possibility as a serious threat. Those are different claims.

It is certainly within the powers of the presidency to declare emergencies, invoke extraordinary authorities, and deploy troops domestically. Whether those actions would withstand legal challenge is another matter. They almost certainly would be challenged. But the fact that they might ultimately fail doesn't mean they aren't a threat.

More importantly, it isn't necessary to impose nationwide martial law to affect election outcomes.

The efforts we've already seen haven't been randomly distributed across the country. The allegations of fraud, the pressure campaigns, the focus on election officials, and the push to place "observers" at polling places have repeatedly been concentrated in places like Fulton County, Georgia, and Wayne County, Michigan—electorally significant jurisdictions with large Democratic constituencies. You don't have to control every polling place in America to influence an election. You target leverage points.

January 6 changed many people's estimates of what is possible. That doesn't mean Trump will attempt something similar again. But neither can we confidently say that he won't. So I don't think the choices are "It definitely will happen" or "It definitely won't happen."

The existence of courts, states, and institutional pushback doesn't eliminate the threat. It means the outcome isn't predetermined. Those are not the same thing.

I understand the impulse to push back against panic and paranoia. There are legitimate reasons for doing so. Fear can lead people to fatalism, disengagement, recklessness, and the belief that outcomes are inevitable. Institutions do matter. Courts matter. States matter. Voters are not powerless. Not every alarming prediction comes true.

At the same time, over the last ten years I've repeatedly heard variations of "Don't be silly. That won't happen."

Don't be silly, he wouldn't send troops into American cities.

Don't be silly, he wouldn't try to overturn the 2020 election.

Don't be silly, he wouldn't encourage a mob to march on the Capitol.

Don't be silly, he wouldn't ignore a court order.

There are many other examples. One thing we can say about the Trump administration is that again and again, they do things that were previously unthinkable.

• A president wouldn't openly encourage efforts to overturn a certified election.
• A president wouldn't summon supporters to Washington and then direct them toward the Capitol while Congress was counting electoral votes.
• A president wouldn't repeatedly refuse to commit to accepting election results.
• A president wouldn't publicly pressure state officials to "find" votes.
• A president wouldn't speak casually about using troops domestically.
• A president wouldn't flirt so openly with ignoring norms that had constrained previous administrations.

Many things once dismissed as unimaginable have, in fact, happened. So when someone says with complete certainty, "Mark my words, he absolutely won't do this," I find that confidence harder to share than I once did. I believe that is true for many.

That doesn't mean I think every alarming prediction will come true. It doesn't mean Trump is omnipotent or that the states and courts are powerless. It means experience has changed my estimate of what is possible.

I don't think complacency is any more justified than panic. The existence of institutional constraints doesn't eliminate the threat. It means the outcome isn't predetermined. To me, that's exactly why people should pay attention and remain engaged.

if you want to talk about a real long shot, a real impossibility, how about the Leafs getting into the Stanley Cup finals?