longshot prediction: the AI bubble gets popped this month by the SpaceX IPO, so get out NOW

[Metaphorical]

51. Data Centers are not getting built

at the rate that the hyperscalars need them to be. Banks are refusing to underwrite more loans for them, because they're already sitting on a lot of existing data center debt that they are now believing may not be recoverable. Local opposition is also rising, and states are placing strong restrictions on where and how they can be built, especially as environmental and economic impacts can start being assessed, and this in turn is also scaling down the size of these centers.

I expect the Anthropic IPO to do well, especially if they are first out of the gate. I think SpaceX and OpenAI will be duds - there will be a flurry of interest initially, but a lot of people are going to hold a lot of worthless stock, and it's then that things get interesting.

Right now, what's happening with the market is that about a dozen stocks are keeping the rest of the market afloat. A lot of the accounting is dodgy - circular financing, special purpose vehicles (SPVs). SpaceX in particular holds most of Musk's failed projects - including X, Xai, and I believe his robotics company (that one may have been folded into Tesla). This means that there's going to be a massive continued drain on the company; profitability may eventually come (perhaps around 2100), but I wouldn't count on it.

As to the market itself, I keep hearing about how the exchanges have protected themselves against big collapses. The problem with that is that this also distorts the real purpose of the markets, which is to ascertain the value of stocks and (by extension) their associated companies. It also means that you end up having to provide back-end government capital to keep the markets from functioning the way that they should. Given this market, I expect it will be an opportunity for Trump and his cronies to enrich himself while letting the market collapse.That's why I'm not so sure that the market won't go through a collapse - it's a way for the uber-wealthy to buy up everything at fire sale prices.