longshot prediction: the AI bubble gets popped this month by the SpaceX IPO, so get out NOW

[GreatGazoo]

3. There are no crashes anymore. Market is rigged and irrational

Looks like only the QQQ will have to buy the SpaceX IPO with a time constraint but even then only in proportion to the float which is low. Morningstar thinks SpaceX will make up less than 1% of the SPY so even if SpaceX became worthless in August the "crash" for those holding passive indexed funds would be less than -1%.

It is a ponzi scheme but so is the whole economy. That's why we have $39 trillion debt. The crypto bubble got Ponzi'd into the AI bubble, eg lots of crypto mining infrastructure got rebranded as "data centers". Crypto is crashing right now but the market isn't.

Losing the Iran war and struggling in Ukraine is driving investment in new weapons systems. "Space" mostly means military systems like satellites, hypersonic missiles and directed energy weapons (DEW). Airplanes and tanks are getting replaced. No expense will be spared.

My prediction: SpaceX is not profitable as is so it will use some of the IPO money to buy related companies that are closer to profit or already in the black: RDW, RKLB, LUNR, RCAT, etc. Many of these have doubled in the last month.

I would not sell SPY and would hold off on buying more QQQ until the dust settles a bit but crashes are now impossible. The stock market is socialism (ironic) for Boomers and the investor class. Investors and banks are the only ones that get bailed out in a downturn (see 2008 and March 2020). They will print enough $$$ to backstop the markets no matter what. I like GLD or GLDM right now. Easy call -- it will continue to rise as oil reroutes and output increases. Shiny rocks.

GLDM will be over $120 by year end, up 30% from right now. Has good support at $85-87 so danged little risk now.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/gldm