General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Here's How the AI Crash Happens; The Atlantic [View all]GreatGazoo
(4,291 posts)or set your downside limit mentally and then execute that trade yourself when the market declines by >6% or whatever you are comfortable with.
Index funds will replace losers with winners so for those whose horizon is 2+ years the only risk in not selling on the way down is how long you have to wait for the inevitable bounce.
In 1996 people said the internet was a fad. In 1999 it was "a bubble". In 2002 they said "told you so". QQQ was $120 at the height of the dot com era -- it is $630 today. Up ~400% in 20 years.
Most of the people repeating this "AI is bubble" thing don't understand how AI makes money. Comparing it to the mortgage backed securities of 2007 is wrong for many reasons but mostly because AI is tech, IP and infrastructure but the 2008 crash was just aggressive lending. Deep Seek didn't pop "the bubble" because it is not a bubble. It is military spending, the new arms race, and therefore will not be allowed to fail. The government is taking a direct stake in the key companies. Index funds backed by military spending, tariffs and outright warfare are socialism for the rich.
Same for oil. https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wtiWTI is good buy anytime it slips under $59 because the US government will always take steps quickly to boost it back over $60. We saw this 10/16 ($57.46) and then it pops 10/21 to $61.79 when the Russia sanctions are announced and Venezuela gets hit. It is not profitable to pump Texas crude when the price dips under $60 and the US is, as the saying goes, 'basically just an oil company with a huge military.'