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Bernardo de La Paz

(60,320 posts)

33. Cautiously, after much study

Sat Nov 1, 2025, 12:23 PM

Nov 1

I'm out, but I'm looking into puts and other option strategies. I'm writing a program to help guide me. I want to do it cautiously, conservatively, but there is money to be made on the bear.

Mainly conserve cash to be able to buy into the bottom once it seems to be established. Warren Buffet did not invest in the 2000 dot.com bubble, rode it out. Right now he's somewhat more in cash than he usually is.

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Here's How the AI Crash Happens; The Atlantic [View all] edhopper Nov 1 OP

dupe Celerity Nov 1 #1

Great minds... edhopper Nov 1 #5

Biggest difference in '08 is that Meta, et.al. have tons of money. Callie1979 Nov 1 #2

That is just Meta edhopper Nov 1 #6

But META's P/E is about 28; not really inflated compared to the broader market Callie1979 Nov 1 #10

I don't think that poor people were the main drivers of the 2008 crash. yardwork Nov 1 #9

Housing defaults were the biggest driver & being "poor" wasnt required. Callie1979 Nov 1 #12

It was agnostic about poor/rich. The problem was layers of wrapping that disguised the true value of the securities. Bernardo de La Paz Nov 1 #17

We may already have built way too many data centers. paleotn Nov 1 #14

+1 leftstreet Nov 1 #24

They all think they're going to find the pot o' gold at the end of the rainbow FakeNoose Nov 1 #36

Thanks for the gift link FakeNoose Nov 1 #3

Can air or ether be far behind? ntp AnnaLee Nov 1 #4

Well people do pay ridiculous prices edhopper Nov 1 #7

And there ARE "oxygen bars"! Callie1979 Nov 1 #13

modern oxygen bars have been around since before I was born (1996) and talked about since 1776 Celerity Nov 1 #15

Nitwits go to oxygen bars & then consume tons of anti-oxidant supplements. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Nov 1 #18

Somehow, whoever holds it, the debt needs to be serviced. My problem is these tech folks get bailed out by taxpayers. dutch777 Nov 1 #8

I can easily imagine a government bail out... hunter Nov 1 #20

I hope it happens before it does more damage jfz9580m Nov 1 #11

It's a decent article but does not deliver on the title promise. I read it in Celerity's thread Bernardo de La Paz Nov 1 #16

I think this paragraph lays it out edhopper Nov 1 #27

Yes, that is one way it might happen. Thanks . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Nov 1 #30

I think the article isn't predictive edhopper Nov 1 #31

It might not crash. It is a bubble, but might deflate in an orderly way, like Meta dropping 11% this week Bernardo de La Paz Nov 1 #32

I am not sure when the last Bubble edhopper Nov 1 #34

Can't happen soon enough. Borogove Nov 1 #19

DUPE bif Nov 1 #21

Be careful where you invest your money, peeps. Joinfortmill Nov 1 #22

So if you have index funds, buy puts as a hedge (insurance)? 3Hotdogs Nov 1 #23

80% of the run up this year4 edhopper Nov 1 #26

Cautiously, after much study Bernardo de La Paz Nov 1 #33

Learn to use stop loss GreatGazoo Nov 1 #35

But the billions into Data Centers edhopper Nov 1 #37

Some of the infrastructure entities GreatGazoo Nov 1 #40

Appl, Google MSFT,Meta edhopper Nov 1 #41

Lawyers and their henchmen accountants. or vice versa Tetrachloride Nov 1 #25

The key point: Meta, Amazon et al will have no responsibility for the data center bankruptcies Bluetus Nov 1 #28

My greatest concern with AI has nothing to do with economic impact Martin Eden Nov 1 #29

The Big Short - great break down of 2008 housing collapse... lame54 Nov 1 #38

Actually, fwiw, snot Nov 1 #39

Powell just said AI isn't a bubble SamuelTheThird Nov 1 #42

And the folks that ignored the Housing Bubble agree edhopper Nov 2 #43