General Discussion

Bernardo de La Paz

(60,320 posts)

32. It might not crash. It is a bubble, but might deflate in an orderly way, like Meta dropping 11% this week

Sat Nov 1, 2025, 12:16 PM

Nov 1

... while the other Mag 7 / tech stocks held up generally.

Just a guess, but perhaps it will deflate in a way intermediate between crash and orderly. Like you I'm out. I'm looking into ways to do some put options for the decline, writing a program to help guide me (I would be cautious). But mostly I'm conserving cash to buy after some kind of bottom seems to be established. Might easily be a couple of years before buying back in.

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Here's How the AI Crash Happens; The Atlantic [View all] edhopper Nov 1 OP

dupe Celerity Nov 1 #1

Great minds... edhopper Nov 1 #5

Biggest difference in '08 is that Meta, et.al. have tons of money. Callie1979 Nov 1 #2

That is just Meta edhopper Nov 1 #6

But META's P/E is about 28; not really inflated compared to the broader market Callie1979 Nov 1 #10

I don't think that poor people were the main drivers of the 2008 crash. yardwork Nov 1 #9

Housing defaults were the biggest driver & being "poor" wasnt required. Callie1979 Nov 1 #12

It was agnostic about poor/rich. The problem was layers of wrapping that disguised the true value of the securities. Bernardo de La Paz Nov 1 #17

We may already have built way too many data centers. paleotn Nov 1 #14

+1 leftstreet Nov 1 #24

They all think they're going to find the pot o' gold at the end of the rainbow FakeNoose Nov 1 #36

Thanks for the gift link FakeNoose Nov 1 #3

Can air or ether be far behind? ntp AnnaLee Nov 1 #4

Well people do pay ridiculous prices edhopper Nov 1 #7

And there ARE "oxygen bars"! Callie1979 Nov 1 #13

modern oxygen bars have been around since before I was born (1996) and talked about since 1776 Celerity Nov 1 #15

Nitwits go to oxygen bars & then consume tons of anti-oxidant supplements. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Nov 1 #18

Somehow, whoever holds it, the debt needs to be serviced. My problem is these tech folks get bailed out by taxpayers. dutch777 Nov 1 #8

I can easily imagine a government bail out... hunter Nov 1 #20

I hope it happens before it does more damage jfz9580m Nov 1 #11

It's a decent article but does not deliver on the title promise. I read it in Celerity's thread Bernardo de La Paz Nov 1 #16

I think this paragraph lays it out edhopper Nov 1 #27

Yes, that is one way it might happen. Thanks . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Nov 1 #30

I think the article isn't predictive edhopper Nov 1 #31

It might not crash. It is a bubble, but might deflate in an orderly way, like Meta dropping 11% this week Bernardo de La Paz Nov 1 #32

I am not sure when the last Bubble edhopper Nov 1 #34

Can't happen soon enough. Borogove Nov 1 #19

DUPE bif Nov 1 #21

Be careful where you invest your money, peeps. Joinfortmill Nov 1 #22

So if you have index funds, buy puts as a hedge (insurance)? 3Hotdogs Nov 1 #23

80% of the run up this year4 edhopper Nov 1 #26

Cautiously, after much study Bernardo de La Paz Nov 1 #33

Learn to use stop loss GreatGazoo Nov 1 #35

But the billions into Data Centers edhopper Nov 1 #37

Some of the infrastructure entities GreatGazoo Nov 1 #40

Appl, Google MSFT,Meta edhopper Nov 1 #41

Lawyers and their henchmen accountants. or vice versa Tetrachloride Nov 1 #25

The key point: Meta, Amazon et al will have no responsibility for the data center bankruptcies Bluetus Nov 1 #28

My greatest concern with AI has nothing to do with economic impact Martin Eden Nov 1 #29

The Big Short - great break down of 2008 housing collapse... lame54 Nov 1 #38

Actually, fwiw, snot Nov 1 #39

Powell just said AI isn't a bubble SamuelTheThird Nov 1 #42

And the folks that ignored the Housing Bubble agree edhopper Nov 2 #43