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Abnredleg

(1,208 posts)

140. The statistical methods used to select random samples

Reply to questionseverything (Reply #116)

Fri Oct 3, 2025, 08:42 PM

Oct 3

are simple and have been around for decades. The statistical analysis used in the video is opaque and uses questionable assumptions that can be easily countered by outside data. Thats why everyone, including the campaign, has moved on. This is no different from the “analysis” done by the GOP in 2020. Just like the GOP fell on its face while attempting to show “how” the conspiracy was carried out, this video has plenty of conjecture but not coherent “how”. Doesn’t matter how compelling the analysis if you can’t show a reasonable method of carrying out the conspiracy.

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SickOfTheOnePct

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Highlight:

BOMBSHELL CLAIM: TRUMP DID NOT WIN 2024, ELECTION MANIPULATED [View all] CNYHarris Oct 3 OP

Auditing could be too late CNYHarris Oct 3 #1

WOW John Coktosten Oct 3 #2

Trump wants to ban mail in ballots CNYHarris Oct 3 #3

No, you can't call the voter to see true voter intent. Ms. Toad Oct 3 #75

There have been plenty of posts about these election denial conspiracy theories. tritsofme Oct 3 #4

I won't ever believe he was elected. BurnDoubt Oct 3 #5

I've never believed it either BonnieJW Oct 3 #36

And (correct me if I'm wrong here); robbob Oct 3 #81

The closest swing state was Wisconsin... SickOfTheOnePct Oct 3 #94

Ok, I guess it was just another internet rumour. robbob Oct 3 #143

No RandySF Oct 3 #6

It was rigged from the start 31st Street Bridge Oct 3 #7

I believe we have to focus on your concern. yellow dahlia Oct 3 #82

Most definately. Very evident when you have precincts that voted all democrat with Trump for president. LiberalArkie Oct 3 #91

I have thought this since the election took place. Trump was thanking Musk for the use of his computers. OLDMDDEM Oct 3 #8

I watched about half of this creeksneakers2 Oct 3 #9

if only NJCher Oct 3 #11

OK, I'll watch the rest creeksneakers2 Oct 3 #18

I watched the rest creeksneakers2 Oct 3 #38

Voting machines are not programmed with lots of people around questionseverything Oct 3 #60

Yes, they are. creeksneakers2 Saturday #160

Refer to post # 71 pls questionseverything Saturday #162

What do you want me to see there? creeksneakers2 Saturday #164

I gave up on this kind of fact-free clickbait long ago. Good on you Maru Kitteh Oct 3 #122

That's the problem for more exposure lildDemz Oct 3 #39

Yeah, it's funny how the conspiracy theorists who make these videos... SickOfTheOnePct Oct 3 #14

I understood that what they do, which I have to assume they do before they open the doors for the public, is Escurumbele Oct 3 #19

For that to work... SickOfTheOnePct Oct 3 #21

Follow the tabulators Doremus Oct 3 #58

In Virginia... SickOfTheOnePct Oct 3 #63

Do you understand, you can't see software? questionseverything Oct 3 #67

Having been a computer programmer ... SickOfTheOnePct Oct 3 #69

Not if a predetermined result was programmed in at the factory questionseverything Oct 3 #71

I'm saying ... SickOfTheOnePct Oct 3 #77

Musk knew that the Central Tabulators and Operating Systems of E.S.&E and Dominion Voting Systems had Botany Oct 3 #120

No state uses a single set of "central tabulators" to count all of the state's vote... SickOfTheOnePct Oct 3 #121

The flipping of votes from Harris to Trump and or the deletions of Harris votes were not pre programed into Botany Oct 3 #124

But for all of the tabulators... SickOfTheOnePct Oct 3 #129

Musk by passed the internet with his use of Starlink and DTC .... direct to cell .... in getting data from and or ... Botany Oct 3 #133

There's no cell phone connection either. n/t Ms. Toad Oct 3 #135

Your post brought up some issues I remember from... Chemical Bill Oct 3 #132

I'm an election worker and that can't be done Kaleva Oct 3 #30

Same n/t SickOfTheOnePct Oct 3 #35

Observer for more than a decade - same. Ms. Toad Saturday #148

It would not be that easy. creeksneakers2 Oct 3 #41

Thank you for adding some reason and reality to this discussion AverageOldGuy Oct 3 #84

How it was done is not the first question. returnee Oct 3 #85

If there is no explanation for how it could be done creeksneakers2 Saturday #163

when all is said and done NJCher Oct 3 #10

The last legitimate win for a republican for POTUS was in 1956 and in every case starting with Nixon in '68 Botany Oct 3 #22

Bush v. Gore being a classic example Ritabert Oct 3 #40

What Botany said! yellow dahlia Oct 3 #88

2024, 2016, 2004, 2000 yellow dahlia Oct 3 #87

Election deniers get old. Silent Type Oct 3 #12

I guess we love our country more than NJCher Oct 3 #25

Nah, it's just kind of a sad spectacle at this point. Just like 9/11 truthers, moon landing deniers, tritsofme Oct 3 #26

you always have the same comment NJCher Oct 3 #29

Yes, I happen to exist in the reality based community. tritsofme Oct 3 #32

common answer, again NJCher Oct 3 #145

Until the facts change, the comment doesn't need to change EdmondDantes_ Oct 3 #95

again NJCher Oct 3 #146

LOL. Silent Type Oct 3 #46

Everybody gets old if they're lucky. returnee Oct 3 #89

The Election Truth Alliance is garbage EdmondDantes_ Oct 3 #13

Grifting grifters are going to grift gullible rubes, that is a given. tritsofme Oct 3 #16

explain it, then NJCher Oct 3 #28

I'm not the one making the unsupported conspiracy theory EdmondDantes_ Oct 3 #100

strictly your opinion NJCher Oct 3 #144

You Already Know What i'm Going To Say Mr.Bee Oct 3 #15

Well, Democrats better do something about it because it will only get worst for the 2026 and 2028 elections. Escurumbele Oct 3 #17

Supposing for a moment their claims are true EdmondDantes_ Oct 3 #20

Because AZJonnie Oct 3 #33

Given it would require actors all over the country, including Democrats, nope. EdmondDantes_ Oct 3 #103

Did you watch the show? AZJonnie Oct 3 #107

We already know. live love laugh Oct 3 #23

Doesn't really matter at this point does it? BlueTsunami2018 Oct 3 #24

Interesting stuff, I will look forward to the follow-up interview AZJonnie Oct 3 #27

You're missing the bit about the swing states using paper ballots Abnredleg Oct 3 #42

I hope it did not sound like I was conveying that I thought the CT presented by the guest was LIKELY AZJonnie Oct 3 #98

And how many check vote ballots do they run in their test. Less than 500? Festivito Saturday #155

It's not that past a certain threshold all votes were recorded for *rump questionseverything Oct 3 #49

Depends on recounting paper ballots. We're not allowed to recount paper ballots. Festivito Oct 3 #31

Paper ballots are counted during risk limiting audits /nt Abnredleg Oct 3 #43

No they aren't, a small sample are counted not even an entire precinct questionseverything Oct 3 #50

Yes, it is understood that audits work off samples Abnredleg Oct 3 #52

Counting paper ballots openly and transparently would work too questionseverything Oct 3 #56

The audits are done in front of observers Abnredleg Oct 3 #61

No one is suggesting counting the entire county at once questionseverything Oct 3 #66

I've yet to find an election official of either party Abnredleg Oct 3 #72

Democracy demands transparency for the average citizen so questionseverything Oct 3 #79

All parties have observers watching every step of the process Abnredleg Oct 3 #90

Full public view means, where the public can see questionseverything Oct 3 #97

There is a reason no election officials support hand counts Abnredleg Oct 3 #99

*rump's people were trying to cause crap, I simply want transparency questionseverything Oct 3 #106

Abnredleg, you make some misleading/false statements. Festivito Saturday #154

The green obnoxiousdrunk Oct 3 #34

Please Watch This Video ... kooth Oct 3 #37

Does it explain how they got around the audits Abnredleg Oct 3 #45

I remain malaise Oct 3 #44

He brings up some good points, the data look quite suspicious, but there is no Fil1957 Oct 3 #47

Do you want a Smoking Gun? Botany Oct 3 #54

How would they know which ballot to toss? Kaleva Oct 3 #57

It's actually illegal to look at the paper ballots in Florida questionseverything Oct 3 #64

Same in Michigan Kaleva Oct 3 #128

It's not that they are tossing ballots questionseverything Saturday #153

But the person I had responded to said the voter had voted Kaleva Saturday #157

That's the point, the results published don't match what actually happened questionseverything Saturday #161

But the person I had responded to said the voter had voted Kaleva Saturday #158

Peter Thiel's Palantir was and is very good at running large batch files of data and democratic leaning voters Botany Oct 3 #65

But how do you match the ballot with the dem leaning voter? Kaleva Oct 3 #130

I. D. K. Botany Oct 3 #134

The point is they are publishing results that are inaccurate questionseverything Oct 3 #136

Voter suppression is well documented going back to the 2000 presidential election. My point is that as long there are Fil1957 Oct 3 #101

I disagree with you but in a nice way. Botany Oct 3 #118

I, 100% agree about that 30% bluestarone Oct 3 #123

And call me a conspiracy nut but I think the planned and calculated crippling of education helps in the .. Botany Oct 3 #126

Man, you got that right! bluestarone Oct 3 #127

Oy Vey DemocratSinceBirth Oct 3 #48

This is NOT a both sides do it situation. Buddyzbuddy Oct 3 #51

We could count the paper ballots openly and transparently questionseverything Oct 3 #55

There's a reason why fraud cases have to be " pled with particularity" Abnredleg Oct 3 #59

Can I prove there was cheating? No. Buddyzbuddy Oct 3 #68

Sure, you can find statistical arguments to support your claim Abnredleg Oct 3 #76

The evidence presented answers most questions that might be brought up. Buddyzbuddy Oct 3 #137

My skepticism comes from decades of government IT Abnredleg Oct 3 #139

I appreciate your experience and knowledge. Buddyzbuddy Oct 3 #141

The delays due to bombs were made up Abnredleg Oct 3 #142

Very compelling facts, thank you. Buddyzbuddy Saturday #147

Statistics can be manipulated, that's why risk limiting audits are worthless questionseverything Oct 3 #109

Different type of statistical analysis Abnredleg Oct 3 #114

lol, ok , so your statistics good, election integrity statistics bad questionseverything Oct 3 #116

The statistical methods used to select random samples Abnredleg Oct 3 #140

See post #71 questionseverything Saturday #151

These graphs aren't "statistics". They are actual votes. The graphs aren't BComplex Saturday #156

Well said. yellow dahlia Oct 3 #96

C'mon everybody, no two or more people would ever agree in secret to break the law Gaugamela Oct 3 #53

I know! Right? That's why there's NO SUCH WORD!!! "Conspiracy"! No such word. BComplex Saturday #159

Like moths to a flame JoseBalow Oct 3 #62

Uh oh---gatekeepers not liking this one at all. Kingofalldems Oct 3 #70

Bev Harris? madinmaryland Oct 3 #73

"I just want to find 11,780, uh, votes." Kid Berwyn Oct 3 #74

Whatever became of the claim here there were a couple of counties in New York where Harris did not receive a single vote Gimpyknee Oct 3 #78

The county is fighting tooth and nail to make sure regular human beings don't get to count those ballots questionseverything Oct 3 #104

The judge in the Rockland County, New York lawsuit has until November 8 to decide annielion Oct 3 #112

Pure clickbait... but without the ALL CAPS YELLOW IMPACT FONT, and a YELLOW ARROW pointing at Trump. QueerDuck Oct 3 #80

Bull. n/t returnee Oct 3 #92

Could we please stop this "Trump did not win in 2024" bullshit??? AverageOldGuy Oct 3 #83

Good luck with that. This seems to be unlikely. QueerDuck Oct 3 #119

Thanks for your service as an election worker dwayneb Oct 3 #138

Yup. Joinfortmill Oct 3 #86

Computer voting systems are always hackable. Always. annielion Oct 3 #93

I got tired of being yelled at for linking the unbelievable evidence Eliot Rosewater Oct 3 #102

I would call the "evidence" not believable v. unbelievable n/t SickOfTheOnePct Oct 3 #105

I believe Statitstics, Numbers and Math Mr.Bee Oct 3 #108

My two cents? MAGA has B.See Oct 3 #113

Especially when the piece of shit himself announces before the election that his friend musk knows those voting machine Eliot Rosewater Oct 3 #115

Here Eliot Rosewater Oct 3 #117

Perhaps not as amazed as you might think. B.See Oct 3 #131

Not a thread on this? Seriously? Offhand, I can recall a number of them posted niyad Oct 3 #110

Three parts make sure to watch them all. No it isn't a comedian making the claim Eliot Rosewater Oct 3 #111

Trump fans not liking this thread one bit. Kingofalldems Oct 3 #125

Post removed Post removed Saturday #150

Whatcha got against Halloween? berniesandersmittens Saturday #152

There was no fix. The Right Wing Controls the Media. Americans Are Stupid. MAGA is a cult. Simple as that. NT Blasphemer Saturday #149